The Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle

Commentary on the Flux of Events

Personally, I don't think Palestinian militants have any intention of joining in a cease-fire. As a tactical matter, I think, they are interested only in marshalling world opinion against Israel, and thereby paralyzing or confounding Israel's ability to defend itself. Getting the US involved in bootless peace negotiations will reinforce the impression to the Islamic world that Israel and the US stand together, a single infidel enemy. The ultimate result will be 1.) a wider war against Israel, 2.) Islamic solidarity against any US moves in Iraq. 3.) stoked sentiment for a greater jihad against the west.

Just as the Palestinans want their sovereign state to be where Israel currently exists, they also want to have a cease-fire without any halt by their side to shootings and bombings. They want to continue the conflict, and they are betting that asymmetrical warfare carried on endlessly by an urban rabble with a bottomless supply of small arms and willing martyrs will eventually defeat the Israelis by demoralization. The Palestinians' greatest weapon, in fact, is their population bomb.

The Palestinians may feel that they have nothing to lose by keeping the pressure on by any means necessary, including fake diplomacy. The US is compelled to play its lugubrious role in the cease-fire melodrama because the tactical gambit of Prince Abdullah's "peace plan" offering "normal relations" to Israel leaves the US no choice except to act as if this is a serious proposal deserving a full-scale diplomatic effort. Israel has to play along, too, until the bluff is called. Prime Minister Sharon has already stated that any Palestinian attacks during a cease-fire will generate an appropriate Israeli response -- meaning, you shoot at us and we will shoot back. There were already two incidents on Sunday: a bus was shot up killing an Israeli woman and wounding seven, and a suicide bomber blew himself up near another bus, killing nobody. So far, the Israelis have not responded.

So far no other Muslim state or freelance group has ratified Prince Abdullah's peace initiative. Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia may have his own reasons for pitching the peace plan. It makes the Saudis look more important than they actually are. It appears to place them on a high moral ground. It will please Islamic militants (whom the Saudi regime fears) because the proposal is designed to trip up the Israelis and stymie the US.

The fact is, the US has no ability to control what the Palestinians do, and limited influence with the Israelis. There is an epochal force to events that is beyond even real good intentions.