The Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle
Commentary on the Flux of Events
Probably later than sooner, Israel will have to get its settlers out of the West Bank and cede the territory in toto to Palestinian jurisdiction. But -- a big but -- they can't do it while Palestinians continue to bomb Israeli pizza parlors and hotels. When Israel does manage to disentangle itself from the West Bank, it will enjoy a great tactical advantage. The West Bank can be treated like a sovereign nation, and if its occupants then choose to launch attacks of any kind from there on Israel, the IDF can justifiably counter-attack massively.
Tom Friedman of the New York Times has made a pretty good case for the use of American or NATO troops to keep the peace while negotiations begin. Among the many obvious problems -- Arafat's utter lack of credibility as a negotiator; Sharon's committment to the West Bank settlements -- I see one that Friedman hasn't addressed: With so many enraged Muslim extremists, terrorists, populists, chauvenists, lunatics, and just plain unoccupied young men in the region (and in nations adjoining the region) wouldn't US or NATO troops become the new target of choice for Islamic discontent? Wouldn't the bombers and the gun squads simply be re-directed at the peacekeepers? I think so. That is exactly what happened with American troops in Lebanon in 1982. Same thing in Somalia when the US tried to protect UN food relief shipments from being hijacked by warlords.
There is broad faction of groups in the Islamic East who are determined to both wipe Israel off the map and to run a jihad against the West, America in particular. Their interest is not to assist with a negotiated settlement that would create a clear and defensible boundary for Israel. Their interest is served by keeping the pressure up, sending the bombers out regardless of what proposals are made, keeping the ammo and explosives supplied, to keep the situation muddled, tense, bloody, and hopeless. Their interest is to run an asymmetrical war organized by international gangs, not nations which could be blamed and counter-attacked. Their long-term strategy is to widen the war and draw the US into an asymmetrical military morass over a huge region. They don't care about the number of casualties they take. They welcome death. They want to set the world on fire and they may accomplish it.
The only thing that constrains them is Israel's ability and willingness to meet their aggression at any level, from a knife-fight in a hallway on up. In a truly widened war, for instance, with a substantial number of rockets emanating from Lebanon (which is under Syrian control), then a certain nation that begins with an "S" and ends with an "a" will be turned into an ashtray. Same thing with the nation that begins with an "I" and ends with a "q." The wider war will eventually cut two ways. Israel's defenses are formidable. Part of the insanity of Jihad Inc. is its failure to recognize that.
America's chief interest, besides protecting the existence of Israel, lies in our continued access to Mideast oil, which is subject to cut-off either as a means of straight-up economic warfare against the US, or by the toppling of regimes like the Saudis of Arabia who do not have the stomach to use the oil weapon. The infrastructure of oil production is also subject to sabotage on the ground by maniacs. Underneath the admirable cool of Colin Powell and the plain speech of George Bush is a desperate effort to keep the oil running. Without it, we head straight for Great Depression II.