Slouching Toward Peace

". . .They are running the Accords logic to its conclusion: every adversary becomes a counterparty, every conflict becomes a deal, every closed economy becomes an investable market." —Patrick Wood

That squawking you hear is Iran getting dragged kicking and screaming out of its jihad delirium into something that might look like reality-based relations with the rest of the world. They have to loudly declare that it’s not happening, even as it’s happening, to gaslight their own home folks, who might be getting a little sick of economic free-fall — and probably sick of the IRGC regime itself. And, of course, they know that the Lefty-left half of the USA is rooting for this whole business to fail so they can get their mitts back on the levers of power to avoid prison.

Things are at a pretty pass, all righty. The sticking point of the moment is Lebanon. Everybody is twanging on Israel to quit fighting Hezbollah. Okay, but does Hezbollah not have some obligation to quit its provocations? And is Iran, which controls Hezbollah, not responsibile to make Hezbollah stop?

Notice, you don’t hear any of the kibitzers calling for that. That’s because getting Hezbollah to poke Israel in the eye with a sharp stick is Iran’s favored device for dragging out negotiations which, they apparently hope, will put POTUS in fear of the looming midterm election. But time is running out on their playing for time. What they’re actually playing is pretend — pretending to be living large and in-charge. They’ve got nothing else, really. They’ve driven their country into a ditch.

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The US is in a straight-up good-cop / bad-cop mode. VP Vance, on-the-ground in Switzerland, presents the very picture of a smooth, cool, rational figure where it counts: face-to-face with Iranian leaders, after all these years. He calmly tells the world news media that “encouraging progress” has been made the first day toward a ceasefire in poor, sore-beset Lebanon. As of Monday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi concurred on “X.”

Meanwhile, President Trump was going mad-dog on social media. Of his relations with irksome Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu, POTUS said, “It’s good, but we have to keep him a little bit sane.” He added, “Iran must stop their highly-paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again. . . bomb the shit out of them.” He advised the Iranian negotiators that they “won’t even make if back” to their country if they keep playing games, and declared that the US will take over the Strait of Hormuz, if necessary. A bit harsh, admittedly. Any trouble parsing it out?

Ghastly as all that might sound, the American negotiating position offers as much carrot as stick. Patrick Wood laid it out nicely in this Substack post. It’s about rearranging the economic “architecture” of the region and, by extension, the rest of the world, which requires a stable, reliable, not-insane Iran and a peaceful Persian Gulf to sustain advanced civilization. The Abraham Accords are designed to induce all the players in the Middle East to act as sovereign nations conscious of, and seeking, their economic best interests — not blocs acting-out large-scale gang warfare based on age-old revenge scenarios. We are simply asking Iran to accept re-integration into real world of transactional nations by joining in the Abraham Accords.

It’s to no one’s benefit for Iran to become a failed state, and that’s what Iran’s leadership is flirting with as they bluster and thwart the peace process. Don’t forget, their clock is ticking, too, maybe even louder than America’s midterm election clock. There’s evidence that the over-full storage capacity for their oil has already caused damage to their oil wells — because shutting down wells degrades the geology of the underlying oil-bearing rock. Inflation has gone wild inside the country, estimated around 70-percent. Iran’s aquifers have lost 90-percent of their water volume as a years-long draught drags on. Iran has to import around 30-percent of its food. Do you suppose these conditions might make everyday life pretty uncomfortable for the Iranian people?

As of Monday morning, VP Vance reported that talks have moved on to the nuclear material question: Iran agreed to offer access to nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. watchdog. They likewise agreed to establish “coordinating mechanisms” aimed at clearing remaining mines from the Strait of Hormuz and solidifying the ceasefire in Lebanon. That looks like actual progress. This was never going to be easy. Expect more bumps on the road. Iran was so far-gone and for such a long time. Show a little patience.

Also, meanwhile, some real fabulous news as Keir Starmer has opted to vacate 10 Downing Street. Good career move! He’s nearly wrecked what’s left of his country. Nobody knows yet who the Labour Party might shove in to replace him, but it’s sure to be another short-timer because the party itself is burnt toast, based on its overwhelming loss in recent local council elections.

Starmer was in office for just over two years. His predecessor Rishi Sunak also lasted less than two years and, before him, PM Liz Truss (remember her?) was gone after 50 days. Procedural rigmarole might drag out the process to replace Starmer until September, when Parliament returns from its summer recess. “Old Blighty,” as the natives sometimes call the UK, is an exceedingly troubled place. With Starmer lingering in office as the lamest of lame ducks, it’s going to be a long summer, and possibly a hot one.

Equally worrisome, at this fraught moment, are the EU’s efforts to start World War Three with Russia. The EU was behind the massive drone attacks against Moscow last week. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, announced plans for “massive group strikes” on Ukrainian targets on a regular basis. Getting spicey over there. All of this is a smokescreen to conceal the political death throes of virtually all the EU member-nation’s leaders — the feckless Merz in Germany, the wobbling Macron in France, the commie PM Pedro Sánchez in Spain, and Giorgia Meloni in Italy, who double-crossed her voters on ending illegal immigration. Europe’s got nothing. . . but trouble ahead.

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