Courting Convulsion

     How infantile is American society?  Last night's CBS "Business Update" (in the midst of its "60 Minutes" program) featured three items: 1.) The New Moon teen vampire movie led the weekend box-office receipts; 2.) Cadbury shares hit an all-time high; 3.) Michael Jackson's rhinestone-studded white glove sold at auction for $350,000. Some in-house CBS-News producer is responsible for this fucking nonsense.  How does he or she keep her job? Is there no adult supervision at the network?

     Meanwhile, over at The New York Times this morning, Paul "Nobel Prize" Krugman writes:

"Most economists I talk to believe that the big risk to recovery comes from the inadequacy of government efforts; the stimulus was too small, and it will fade out next year, while high unemployment is undermining both consumer and business confidence."

     Disclosure: I'm not one of the economists that Mr. Krugman talks to (nor am I an economist). But it's sure interesting to know that the ones palavering with Mr. Krugman imagine that that the US can possibly return to an economy based on the fraudulent securitization of reckless debt. Does Mr. Krugman think that the production housing industry can resume paving over the nether exurbs with half-million-dollar houses (to be bought with no money down loans by the sheet-rockers working inside them)? Does he think all those people receiving cancellation notices from their credit card issuers are in a position to flash their plastic at the Gallerias this Friday? Or ever will be again?  Is he perhaps misusing the term "recovery?"  After all, that is generally taken to mean resuming a prior state, which is, in turn, presumed to be a healthy prior state.  Is that what the economy of the past decade was?  And, incidentally, what exactly is a "consumer?"  And why, at the highest levels of journalism in this land, do we refer to citizens that way?  As if the American people have no other purpose except to buy things? Or is that the only way an "economist" can imagine them?

     I'm sorry to burden the reader with so many questions, but the idiots running the mainstream news media in this land are not doing it and somebody has to. 

     If a "recovery" is not in the cards, then what exactly is going on out there?

    What's going on in the US economy is a slow-motion convulsion from which we will emerge as a very different nation with a different economy.  The wild irresponsibility of the media in pretending otherwise is only going to make the convulsion worse, more painful, more socially and politically destructive. The convulsion can be described with precision as one of compressive contraction. Historic circumstances are requiring us to change our behavior, to make new arrangements for everyday life in all the major particulars: capital accumulation and deployment; food production; commerce; habitation; transport; education; and health care. These new arrangements must be organized at a smaller and finer scale, and on a much more local basis.

     The main "historic circumstance" mandating these changes goes under the heading of "peak oil."  We've come to the end of our ability in this world to increase energy inputs to the global economy.  The routine "growth" in industrial activity and production that has been the basis of our financial arrangements for 200-odd years is no longer possible.  Offsetting this decline in oil energy "input" with "alt.energy" is a dangerous fantasy because it distracts us from the urgent task of making new arrangements for trade, food production, et cetera - the very things that would provide jobs and social roles for our citizens in the future.

     We are seeing a comprehensive failure of leadership in every sector and every level of American life - in politics, business, banking, education, news media, medicine, and the clergy. All are determined to pretend that we can somehow continue the habits and behaviors of the pre peak oil era. They are all unwilling to face reality, and are all engaged in mutually supporting each other's dangerous fantasies.

     If we don't attend to the transformation of American life by downscaling our activities and changing the way they are carried out, and re-localizing them, we will see our society disintegrate - and I use the word "dis-integrate" with purposeful precision. Everything will come apart - our political arrangements, our households, our health and well-being.

     At the moment, banking is disintegrating.  It's happening because the end of regular, predictable, cyclical, industrial growth means the end of our ability to generate credit without limits, and in fact we passed this point by stealth some time ago leaving the banks in "Wile E. Coyote" suspension above an abyss, where they have lately been joined by government at all levels and the indebted citizens of the land. The profound nausea spreading through the offices of America is the somatic recognition of exactly where we are in all this: off the cliff.

     It's important to remind readers that so-called "capitalism" is not to blame.  Capitalism is not an ideology.  It refers to a set of laws governing the disposition of surplus wealth.  There is going to be surplus wealth somewhere in the years ahead, even if our living standards fall substantially, even under the strictures of peak oil.  All the communist experiments of the 20th century produced some kind of surplus wealth. All of them were subject to the phenomenon of compound interest. What matters in the disposition of capital are the rules created for accumulating and deploying it.  In the USA the past two decades, we ignored the rules, repealed some of the critical laws, and failed to enforce the existing ones so that, when faced by the historic circumstances of peak oil, we allowed fraud and swindling to run wild - just at the moment when we should have taken the most care.  That is why our money system ran off the rails.

     We're now seeing worldwide a kind of race between the assertion of peak oil and the failures of capital management as to which will provoke a widespread convulsion first.  They are obviously related and whichever gets us in the most trouble fastest, our destination is the same: the absolute necessity to reorganize how we live.  Among the many elements of this is the fact that "globalism," in the Thomas Friedman sense of the word, is over. The urgent need to re-localize economies makes this self-evident. As a practical matter for us, this means committing to import replacement - making things we need in the US, probably much more regionally.  "Globalism" now joins the many other fantasies that we can no longer indulge in.

     At the moment, going into Thanksgiving 2009, America's leadership has dedicated itself to the worst action it could take under the circumstances: a campaign to sustain the unsustainable. This is what's embodied in the foolish term "recovery."  The way we try to explain things to ourselves matters, if we don't want to be crushed by history. Go back to the top of this blog and look at the things we pay attention to.  Aren't you ashamed?

419 Comments

"While Miss Califwhorenia, Carrie Prejean was getting her tits stuffed in preparation to become Miss USA.... across the desert Miss Navajo Nation*, Tashina Nelson was butchering and dressing a sheep as part of the cultural awareness and proficiency requirement of her pagent. You see, Miss Navajo Nation represents the Navajo People, and it is important that she have a clear understanding of her culture. Miss Navajo Nation will be ready to lead in the era of peak oil... Carrie Prejean wasn't even awake for her tit job, and has no cultural understanding of what it takes to stuff a boob."

A special Thanksgiving post

http://www.suburbanempire.com

Suburban Critical
Empire Chronicle

Ah Jim, how right you are. But look on the bright side; a lot of crap will go by the wayside (jetskis come to mind). Meanwhile, you can have some fun with our Thanksgiving song at http://www.thenothingstore.com

Kunstler, this is truly one of your best comments, on target on absolutely every count. It's also beautifully written.

You could add, though, that the "Moron Culture" was created and continues to be promoted not by our "lumpenproles" out here but by our so called "elites", and elites all over the globe aspire to this way of life. We've managed to export the very worst of our culture- the outer suburban lifestyle, replete with oversized houses, three cars per family, and all the rest of the features of the most wasteful lifestyle ever invented.

Our elites are trying frantically to sustain the unsustainable and generate more of it not only here but around the world. The American Suburban Moron Lifestyle is idealized by the Elites all over the globe, and they are wasting their citizen's present and future wealth building American Exurban Edge City Fantasies. Looks like a considerable part of China's 8% growth in GDP went to build an imitation American Exurban fantasy called Ordor City, which looks like Schaumburg, IL and is virtually empty- miles and miles of 8 lane roads, high rise glass and steel office buildings standing isolated on big parcels of land, and miles of suburban housing development. This was all built with government money, of course, and the Chinese are calling it "growth". In what, may we ask?

Agree completely. Powerful and dead on!

Well, once again JHK sums it up neatly. We are a nation of buffoons and superannuated children. We are facing epochal calamities and we indulge ourselves in fantasies.
Woe is us.

There once were cultures on this landmass who did not have failing institutions like ours. Who did not need to fear peak oil and credit markets crashing like we do. They had no carbon footprints.... and we took it all away from them.

How can you lose a nation that was stolen in the first place?

"The Navajo did not have bubbles in the Hogan market burst: leaving hundreds kicked out on to the game trail due to foreclosure. And there was not a “Goldman Sioux” bank, giving themselves lavish holiday parties and bonuses while other members of the tribe got tossed out of their tee-pee's to pay for it."

http://www.suburbanempire.com

A special Thanksgiving essay

Suburban Critical, Empire Chronicle.

Great posts. I never imagined the depth of denial would be so great, and so durable. Yet our consensus trance prevails.

This should be the holiday season of the great awakening. With credit lines withdrawn, and ever deepening unemployment and foreclosures, surely the veneer will begin to peel away. No Christmas presents, no Christmas vacation, maybe no home. A populace that has been lied to will first feel different, and self-loathing. Given enough numbers, it will "awaken", and the flip side will be rage and scapegoating. An immature culture does not adapt, it acts out.

A pox on our culture for these lies. The Disney version of suburban perfection is in its death rattle. How will these citizen monuments to "learned helplessness" make other arrangements? They can barely put air in the tires.

This is going to be very ugly. In my view, a convulsion is the upside scenario. I think collapse, rage, and anarchy are in play, all fully earned through our hubris.

AD

Actually, I think those three news items have their finger on the pulse of the American public. It's all about distraction. Young people are, in fact, scared shitless of the future and feeling helpless. My younger son who just got out of film school says, "Mom, I have five years to make it." He doesn't mean five years to start his career, he means five years for his whole career before it's all over. No Hollywood, no internet...

Back in the eighties mothers of teens felt bad that their kids were growing up under the threat of nuclear holocaust. These young people now are caught between putting one foot in front of the other going to work to pay their rent and looking into a big question mark where the future (marriage, family, house) used to be.

Out here in the bush we're hoping for another wave of youngsters to homestead between all us aging boomers, many of whom came in the seventies. I was heartened when that same son quickly did the math after eating my canned peaches. I told him it takes three hours to can 14 pints and he quickly cyphered that the savings incurred weren't a bad 'wage'. Another smart approach he has to the future is he's not expecting to accumulate assets. He'll try and get his documentary made and out there, not expecting to be sitting pretty afterwards.

We also have a bunch of organic farming interns out here. They admit that many of their college buddies aren't expecting the 'convulsion' you describe, Jim. But some is better than none.

So as long as people like your readers are doing their best to scale back, and talk it up, maybe people are aware of what's happening and it's just the calm before the storm.

Lynn

http://www.10in10diet.com/
Diet for a small footprint and a small grocery bill

The delusional media moguls have hired juvenile nitwits to force feed the human herd a bunch of mind mush that continues to distract them away from the harsh reality of what's really going on behind the black magic veil of profits in corporate la la land. The complete nonsense of paying tons of worthless paper dollars for a glove is just more emotional fodder for Merry Mulah and his militant madmen to dispise the current consumption empire just in time for the next shopping frenzy.

Today's Krugman calls for a second stimulus. -then what?
a third?, followed by a fourth? This is what passes for "economics" these days.

1 billion
minus 1 trillion = BONUS

Jim,

It should be mandatory that every Monday morning American citizens have to read your comments. Oh, if only it were so, because we then might start to get a grip on the lunacy that surrounds us. I like to read Krugman, if only to understand why we are in this pickle. The Krugman's of the world are incapable of connecting the dots. What did he get a nobel prize for, deciding the economic impact of cutting your toenails on Sunday, rather than Wednesday? His ilk will/are leading us down the path to ruin. Keep it up.

pardon me, Lynn, but if you've really been thinking the S#it is going to hit the fan, why would you have allowed your kid to piss away so much time, money and effort on something as banal and frothy and useless as "film school"

"""1.) The New Moon teen vampire movie led the weekend box-office receipts; 2.) Cadbury shares hit an all-time high; 3.) Michael Jackson's rhinestone-studded white glove sold at auction for $350,000. Some in-house CBS-News producer is responsible for this fucking nonsense. How does he or she keep her job? Is there no adult supervision at the network?"""

Yes, exactly. When and where will anyone demand some adult supervision? I keep getting flashback feelings of doom - pretty much like the way I felt when GW was elected for the second time. Not that I thought Kerry deserved the position - only that he might at least act like a grown-up some of time.

Who was that one guy Eddie Murrow? I figure he's spinning like a top - or at least what's left of him.

So far the 30-million or so "reality-tv watchers" have yet to mix it up with the 100-million or so "reality-live Americans" watching their "life-shows" go down the drain. Hard to say when and if the sponsors will ever change the programming.

At any rate, whatever the hell JK is writing about must not be very important - or else it would have been on 60 minutes.

Tune in next week - same bat-time, same bat-channel.

Excellent Mr. Kunstler, one of your best essays yet. I appreciate your ability to not only ask the right questions but to analyze the problems we face as a nation with the sort of precision that a gifted artist brings to his or her craft. There is grace and beauty here, and those two things have always held more value to me than all the "assets" economists have ever talked about. I look forward to the coming changes, not because things will be easier- they will not. I'm a visual artist myself and nothing I do is easy. No, I look forward to the future because grace and beauty and a new appreciation for the mystery of life will become the new currency, and we will rediscover a life our ancestors once enjoyed, a life much deeper, more beautiful and bristling with meaning.

Right on with this post, Jim.
However, you forgot to mention the current media blabber about "Water on the Moon." Geesh.

Jim, Today I am thankful to have ready access to your perspective, which is dead on, as usual.
Long time reader, first time commenting.
Someone's gotta say it: Joe; every week; "First"?
WTF? How empty is that?...one wanders if you lurk in your mother's basement with a whole list of bloggers and exactly when they publish, so you can swoop down and drop your "First" on their comment section, like a pigeon on a freshly washed car...
Jim, heard on the podcast you finished WMBH2.
When is it hitting the stores? Sounds like a mighty fine Christmas present for me to buy myself with my credit card...

No. I read it once.

In fact, I was having a ball, but you have the advantage over me. You're already awake.

Qshtick, I answered you at the end of last week's.

Yeah, yah, yah, coach. whip 'em with your whistle. Ride on the sled they're pushing. Make the guard who missed a block take his helmet off as he's running up to receive a rabbit punch on top of the head and then, run back.

I was a scared to read. I managed to smile for two paragraphs, then the dread took over the rest of the way.

I notice that now that the cat is out of the bag, everybody acts like they get to start with a clean slate. "Okay, the economy is tanking. Here's what we do." So, that wasn't immediately clear when you were arguing with them that everything was all right. Now, they come out of Saginaw and Bryn Mawr with their fancy degrees and intend to still live, after shedding crocodile tears that, "Some American's won't make it." That's their stripe. They are perfectly willing that the Grim Reaper not take them. But, in how much luxury and waste can they, in their heart of hearts, really indulge? It sickens.

No, I'm lying. It's abundantly clear we are going to revolt. And, if you think SWAT teams can win in a war of attrition, check out what happens in Vietnam.

"The Mini Gun can put a bullet in every square foot on a football field (1968)."

Are you saying you can't lose? You got the high-tech and that's why? The jungle is alive with surveillance? Well I got a quarter-paper that says Paul Krugman's wife sucks a mean dick.

So, they appear to lie so bad, and surfing that wave, intend to land high and dry. Nobody's calling them to account because somebody has forgotten that this place has a Constitution.

JUMP

(Words by Van Halen)

I get up, and nothing gets me down.
You got it tough. I've seen the toughest soul around.
And I know, baby, just how you feel.
You've got to roll with the punches to get to what's real
Oh can't you see me standing here,
I've got my back against the record machine
I ain't the worst that you've seen.
Oh can't you see what I mean ?

Might as well jump. Jump !
Might as well jump.
Go ahead, jump. Jump !
Go ahead, jump.

Aaa-ohh Hey you ! Who said that ?
Baby how you been ?
You say you don't know, you won't know
until you begin.

This is one of those drug songs with subliminal lyrics. "I ain't the worst that you've seen", is really, "I ain't the works that you've seen". This means that finding works (syringe, spoon), is not good enough. Works are like a toothbrush. Don't just use ones you find. You'll catch Hep C or AIDS. In the revolution, the citizen-soldiers have to maintain their fighting capability. Rub shit all over yourself. You'll blend in.

http://sbillinghurst.wordpress.com

HOW TO MAKE METHAMPHETAMINE

Jim,
I hope you'll take a look at this analysis I did for a recent OpEd News piece tracking personal bankruptcies, personal debt service ratio and unemployment at: http://www.opednews.com/articles/What-the-Economists-Aren-t-by-Chaz-Valenza-091119-795.html titled "What the Economists Aren't Saying: Americans' Finances in Tatters, Bankruptcies to Skyrocket."

And again, thank you, for making another stab at ending the subtle destruction of citizens and workers by deriding MSM style book and economists' use of the pejorative term "consumer."

This week's post was straight forward and stated in blunt fashion. I agreed with most of it, but the problem of rescaling our way of life rests not only with the policy, or lack of policy, makers but also with getting even the smallest incremental change from citizens. In my writing I'm trying to advocate that people take action now that will be to their advantage immediately as the mass media has lied to us about the external costs the citizens bear that sustains the current unsustainable system of labor and trade. See: http://www.opednews.com/articles/9-Things-You-Can-Do-to-Sto-by-Chaz-Valenza-090723-223.html "Nine things you can do to stop Big Greed now."

My formerly middle class carpet cleaning customers are dropping off in big numbers.

Those who remain, based on my conversations with them while cleaning their carpet, are aware of what is going on, and see the American Empire in decline.

I guess what I'm saying is more people know about reality and are acting on it than we may give them credit.

Of course, I'm in Portland, Oregon, an unusually literate science-respecting city where perhaps more people "get it" than in other places.

Hi Chubzz. Actually, he spent only eight months in an intensive hands-on course, paying his tuition with an insurance settlement after being hit by a car as a pedestrian. I do think there will be plenty of room in the future for creative thinkers/communicators. One thing I've learned in my own forty year career as a creative professional is that that kind of thinking is transferable. Have you noticed our Jim here is selling his paintings and his novel on this site? He's a creative thinker.


Lynn
http://www.10in10diet.com/
Diet for a small footprint and a small grocery bill

Note to Joe: 13th!

Continuing on last nite's miserable network TV thread...how's 'bout them American Music Awards!? Total inanity. Even homegrown Carrie Underwood strutted her stuff like some cupcake on a Vegas strip. Nope, Carrie, you "shore ain't in Checotah anymore!"

As for the delusional state of most economists (how can a profession as a whole look so collectively like a bunch of buffoons?), I saw a great quote from Chris Martenson from a talk he gave at ASPO in Denver a few weeks ago: "If you lock three economists in a basement, they won't worry about starving because they know their grumbling bellies will soon cause sandwiches to appear."

Any finally, this one from Robert Jensen down at UT--Austin, about why NO leadership can save us at this point: "We are at a moment when leaders cannot help us, because we need to go deeper than leadership can take us."

Whether you choose to celebrate Thanksgiving or not (Jensen will be in Canada on a speaking engagement), have a great week.

What is most confounding is that efforts to advance technological improvements along the way to re-localizing our economy seem to be frustrated at every turn.

We need Ben Franklin to come back and do away with patents that are held to blockade the production of the things that will lower fossil fuel company profits, such as 3-D solar cells, large format Ni-MH batteries which have not been made since the demise of the EV1.

We need a 'National Security Eminent Domain Patent Program' desperately.

~Ruff

Another clueless post from CLUELESS KUNSTLER! You are so fixated on thinking that things will develop the way you think as in The Long Emergency that you are incapable if seeing the truth. The people in charge are not clueless. They are doing all of this intentionally in order to usher in the New World Order. That’s from mainstream media, not conspiracy land. America will be gutted like a pig (economically) and within a year or so, we will see a new currency (and governance) to replace the dollar.

911 let them turn the country into a total police state via the PATRIOT Act; Military Commissions Act; John Warner National Defense Act; etc. And now, after a few short years, the terrorists aren’t turban wearing islamofascists, but us, the American public. It’s so obvious it’s silly. I can’t believe you don’t see it. They spy on us constantly, phone calls, emails, blogs like this. Camera’s everywhere…

We are on the precipice of hyperinflation like Weimar, Argentina, Zimbabwe, etc. Guess what? We know how Hitler fixed it. In four years the German economy went from the worst to the fourth strongest in the world. It was not rocket science and we know how to avoid it, but we aren’t even trying to avoid it because they want the USA to crash as hard as possible. Problem – Reaction – Solution.

It’s all designed to achieve the goal of global governance. Global rule. You should put your efforts into exposing these people! One day you will wake up and realize that “those crazy conspiracy theorists were right all along.” Why wait Jim? Why don’t you do some real investigation into 911? That would be a good starting point. Once you come to terms with the truth of 911, the rest will be easy for you.

Why is anyone surprised by this behavior? Do you really expect leadership from the current batch of politicians who are simply protecting their own self-interest, as they always have?

This is all a massive Cargo Cult, where the masses and leadership and media all think that going through the old motions and visiting the malls will please the gods who make the goodies appear.

Forget about expecting new directions, rational leadership, etc. For that to be possible would require massive admission that a lot of what was thought to be progress was delusion. Not going to happen.

Focus on fixing yourself, your family and friends, building real skills, and get ready for a nasty, brutish ride.

I'm embarrassed by what we call "news" in this country and have been for many years. Damn I'm tired of being called a "consumer"...thanks for questioning that word being substituted for "citizen."

BTW, I'm tired of soldiers being referred to as "troops". That's just wrong (and a little off-topic).

I agree with it all. I would add, however, that not all of the failure can be laid upon the shoulders of our leaders. We get the leaders we choose and any politician foolish enough to tell the American people the truth will find him or herself quickly returning to civilian life.

We are a nation of buffoons driving our bloated bodies and egos in our bloated vehicles into a sinkhole.

I find the tragedy of it all even more bitter considering the difference of what we are and what we could have been.

Why is the flip side of the peak oil coin some kind on bleak every one for himself disaster movie? Do we only have one ending?

As if all you clusterfucks think you know what the future will bring.
Most of us are pretty tired of all the BS anyway. So after a little bit of exhalation, we will self organize and make our society anew.

The elites should be worried because they climbed the highest and will fall the farthest.

Those on the bottom of the pile know how to live a low impact life style. We don't ask for much and we share whatever we had.

I think you all caught up in the boogie man syndrome.
If there's no gas for the SUV you'll fucking walk or ride your bike

Seeds will still grow when you put them in the ground. Crops will fail and we will help each other out... same as it ever was.

I think the peak oil morons need to wake up from their fucking end of the world brainwash and look around. Start digging in the dirt. Plant a tree. Get off the box (tV and PC) and you will see things without the rose colored chicken little the sky is falling glasses.

JHK. You could use a few links to those that are making the transition and let go of throwing stones at those we already know are idiots. What's the ROI on growing food? One seed compounded. Now that's a return we can all buy into!

Over and out. Bake some cookies. Milk the cow and enjoy.
Life's too short without all the effing gloom and doom.

Thanks again for another great column.

The term "Social Role" struck me as being something that most Americans are confused about or ignorant of. We have been brainwashed to think our only social roles are to work at a "career" and to consume goods and then to retire. The government and big business will take care of the rest. We need to grow up and find out what our real roles demand of us and start arranging our lives to live our true social roles.

Distractions, distractions, Bread and Circuses. Eat while you can from the public troth and be sure to beef up the private ones, investing in your own and neighbors’ ability to produce local food stuffs, goods and services, and security. “Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and take what you get,” as my 79-year old father likes to say.

Rome Burns,Nero Fiddles Nothing New

Let me correct my typo. The city is Ordos City, China's "empty city".

Anyway. The whole world is going down the tubes with us because they are trying to be like us at our dumbest.

And it's their "elites" driving it.

Any positive change in favor of sensible, sustainable lifeways is going to be generated by the imaginative, creative, and reality oriented people at the bottom or middle of this society. In Chicago's violence-plagued Englewood neighborhood, some people are starting agricultural projects. Other people are rehabbing small towns and city neighborhoods, and working to relocalize their food supply and retail.

Our "elites" will only ruin us faster. Once people become upper class, they have nothing to offer but investment capital. They are too invested in things the way they've been to work for the structural changes we need.

Rome Burns,Nero Fiddles Nothing new

No, I'm not ashamed.

Why should I be? I'm not the producer at CBS that made the editorial decisions in question. For that matter, I'm not even a viewer of the program, for precisely the reason that it's a source of the tripe of the sort you describe.

In keeping with the zetetic nature of the post, a few additional questions:

— if the last decade's economy was not healthy, as you suggest and I agree, then why lament the disintegration of the set of conditions and institutions which produced it?

— putting aside his reference to "consumer", isn't Krugman's injunction for stimulus and job creation neutral as to the object in which the stimulus is invested, and therefore consistent with a large investment in what you term "making new arrangements for trade, food production, et cetera"?

Even allowing for your narrow use of the term "capitalism" in the sense of a set of (not entirely uncontroversial) "laws", it does not follow that the term does not have other commonly accepted meanings. It does. Including ideological meanings. Included among them is the variant of globalism associated with Freidman — the ideology of allowing humans with capital the freedom to move that capital about the globe at will, in search of optimum conditions for investment (which with notable frequency correlate to places with an abundance of people in poverty, and a dearth of civil, labor, environmental, regulatory, etc., laws to protect them) while simultaneously preventing humans without capital similar freedom to move to conditions more to their liking. This "what's good for me is not good for you" ideology produces results distributed precisely as unevenly as you might expect. Ultimately those uneven distributions produce institutions of such small number and limited variety that they become susceptible to being buffeted by disruption in the ways illustrated by recent years' events.


Some folks are aware, just look at the folks who read sites like this. Yes, I am ashamed that the media pushes pop culture as news. But, so too are plenty of others. Tune the pop culture tabloid news out.

The really big question is whether Black Friday will produce the necessary orgy of consumerism to keep this fraudulent economy treading water for a little while longer. I'm in favor of the economy dying as quickly and completely as possible but it is evident that the fantasyland will continue so long as the fantasy persists.

On a more positive note, Nature's recovery & redevelopment project is already active, successful and ready to take over as soon as the civilization catastrophe has ended:

http://www.flickr.com/dmathew1

It is funny how humankind, an allegedly intelligent animal, cannot live at peace with anything or anyone or any place or each other.

Extinction would benefit humankind in the sense that it would allow this species an escape from its own self-generated self-perpetuated misery.

Yet the consumer cattle will be out in force on Friday responding in a Pavlovian manner to consumer products and advertisements, perhaps this is the last great blowout of consumerism before America's credit card is cut up and thrown away for good.

Over on The Oil Drum, one of the commenters posted that the only reason the system keeps going is because of a failure to connect the dots. Mind you, the people there are connecting the dots, but they're not in much of a position to do something about the situation.

There are others who are connecting the dots. Here are two a friend of mine reposted on LiveJournal.

15 Signs American Society Is Coming Apart at the Seams
By David DeGraw, Amped Status
Posted on November 21, 2009
http://www.alternet.org/story/144109/

The first 13 are signs of increasing poverty and economic inequality. Unfortunately, Peak Oil is not mentioned anywhere in the report, so not all the dots are plotted, let alone connected. The last two are the following.

14) The gun and ammunition manufacturing industry in the United States has over 200 companies producing billions of dollars in annual revenues. This huge manufacturing base cannot fulfill demand quickly enough. The demand for guns and ammunition has hit a record high and the gun industry cannot produce enough bullets to keep up with orders.

Americans are arming themselves to the teeth!

15) In the past year, 100 new armed militia groups have been formed, as militia members have doubled in numbers. Federal authorities are gravely concerned about the “uptick in militia activities." One federal authority recently said, “All it’s lacking is a spark. I think it’s only a matter of time before you see threats and violence."

The above are the ones getting the most attention on LiveJournal. Violence sells.

Here's the other.

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US
by Dmitry Orlov
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259

Orlov, on the other hand, knows about Peak Oil and mentions it in his report, so he plots all the dots and connects them. The result is not a pretty picture. It's also something I recommend all of us read as an example of how "The Long Emergency" could turn out very badly.

Orlov also has a book to sell.

http://www.amazon.com/Reinventing-Collapse-Example-American-Prospects/dp/0865716064

Scroll down a bit and you'll see that Amazon is running a three for one special: "Reinventing Collapse" "The Long Descent" and "The Long Emergency" all for $35.83. Buy them all before your currency becomes worthless!

To all of you “KUNSTLER ACOLYTES.” It’s easy to just call someone a name and shrug things off. But, I assume some of you are “readers.”

Try one of these books:

1. The 911 Commission Report, Omissions and Distortions. David Ray Griffin, Olive Branch Press, Northampton, Massachusetts, 2005.

2. 911 Synthetic Terror. Webster Griffin Tarpley, Progressive Press, Joshua Tree, California, 2005.

3. The Terror Conspiracy. Jim Marrs, The Disinformation Co., Ltd., 2006.

4. Debunking 911 Debunking, An Answer to Popular Mechanics and Other Defenders of the Official Conspiracy Theory. David Ray Griffin, Olive Branch Press, Northampton, Massachusetts, 2007.

5. Inside Job - Unmasking the 911 Conspiracies. Jim Marrs, Origin Press, San Rafael, California, 2004.

If you have any intelligence at all, you can determine the truth about this “KEY EVENT” using empirical evidence. Then you will truly understand what is going on.

Otherwise, you’ll be stuck in the feedback-loop of reading Kunstler’s weekly prattle and never understand “how and why.”

An unmentioned major factor is the global US military empire operating over 1,000 military bases in 130 plus nations and costing over $1 TRILLION annually. Much of it borrowed from China, Japan and the Gulf state soverign wealth funds. As Obama ponders how many new troops to send into the Afghanistan quagmire, reports emerge that it costs a cool $1 million a year to keep a US soldier in the field. So multiply $1 million times 10,000 or 20,000 or 40,000 or whatever additional troops are to be sent and add that to the financial debacle. And that gasoline delivered to the remoteness of Afghanistan costs $300 and up per gallon---who knows how much of that is the cost plus contracts of the military contractor scams. Like the suburban life style, the global military operations are simply unsustainable. Indeed the largest single user of hydrocarbon fuels is the Pentagon with its five ocean navy and all those bases and active wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. And then add in the mercenary troops of Dyncorp and Xe (Blackwater) and their ilk, often making 5 or 6 times the pay of US ground troops. So the vast effort to secure the US dominance and control of the Middle East reserves of oil and gas to keep the "non-negotiable US lifestyle" going is another collapsing fantasy.
Imagine what even a fraction of military spending could do for building mass rail transit, or infrastructure repair, or any of the rest of the decaying US civil society.

It is true. The economy is in disconnect, the dollar is overleveraging itself into oblivion and overspeculation using "hot" dollars (worthless)is ungluing oil prices from its historic demand structure.

It will get ugly next year. Politics is a sideshow if you don't ask the right questions and go forward with the right solutions. The "EROI" paperweight should be on Obama's desk to remind him, you can fool yourself, but you can't fool the third law of thermodynamics.

Thanks Jim for a clear headed non hysterical but strident rant on the current state of affairs. You accurately point out that failure and incompetence is at all levels of society and yet there is little evidence of green shoots of awareness. Our wilycoyote society has indeed shot off the cliff but as far as I can see hasn't yet looked down. B. Goldman Sachs Obama just doesn't see it although I think his missus does. Awareness is absent, assumptions are wrong, solutions are wrong...Ah life at the end of empire.

This would have been a decent rant without JHK's insistence on the "Capitalism is akin to the laws of physics" meme.

It is, of course, complete and utter rubbish ranking up there with pseudoscientific nine-eleven-was-an-inside-job style thinking.

And there is a distinct and profoundly important difference between "wealth" and "money". The former being natural, tangible resources and services; the latter being a technology of measurement of the former for the purpose of exchange.

John Michael Greer (thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com), among others, has recently gone to great lengths to explain these hidden-in-plain-sight truths.

JHK would do well to absorb and process Mr. Greer's insights, rather than slighting him by calling him "odd" or "weird" in his KunstlerCast.

I assume JHK is trying to imply that a) the technology of money (however such technology is conceived) has to have rules, b) these rules can be called "capital-ism" (a woefully-deceptive and -childish trick of writing he has often employed in the past), and c) therefore "Capitalism" is like physics.

If you believe that Capitalism--as mythologized, executed and imposed for the benefit of the few (plutocratic lemon socialists) at the expense of the many (the biosphere in general, the world's poor specifically)--is the equivalent of a theoretical list of anthropogenic rules governing the technology of money, you are, quite simply, as delusional as nine-eleven, conspiracy freaks.

"1.) The New Moon teen vampire movie led the weekend box-office receipts; 2.) Cadbury shares hit an all-time high; 3.) Michael Jackson's rhinestone-studded white glove sold at auction for $350,000. Some in-house CBS-News producer is responsible for this fucking nonsense. How does he or she keep her job? Is there no adult supervision at the network?"

The REASON this stuff is on is because people watch it. As did JHK.

And there are many, many greater things to be ashamed of in this toxic culture/civilization, founded on murder and theft, sustained by murder and theft, still murdering and stealing.

Oh, yeah, and as I type, the NYSE is up 160 points.

Well, then this little bit o' news will either make you laugh or cry, Jim. Possibly both. My parents live in Florida. They own a co-op in Lenox, Massachusetts, where they stay in the summer while they're having fun at Tanglewood. They spent the last couple of months jumping through a lot of hoops to refinance their loan on the co-op. The loan is with Bank of America, which also has the mortgage on their Florida home. They always pay their bills on time, have a stable existence from their pensions and investments, and therefore have a fantastic credit rating. After going through the entire rigamarole, the bank turned down the refinance loan. Why? Because it is a co-op in which the owner does not reside at least 80% of the time. For some reason, these types of properties do not comprise a large enough segment of the market for the banks to bundle that loan and sell it to other companies. Read that again to make sure you read it right. Apparently, the meltdown of the past two years which arose from the bundling and selling of mortgages for short-term gain has not taught the bankers that this business methodology is poisonous to their enterprise. They are still addicted to it. They are so motivated by the potential for short-term gain from this deleterious activity that they won't even entertain the thought of making an honest transaction with a loyal and stable customer who will contribute to their financial health. What adds insult to injury is that they couldn't even bother to tell my parents this before beginning the process instead of waiting until the end. This is why Rome is falling again. You betcha!

Why is 30% APR a counter-inducement to purchase on credit? Inflation is good for an economy. It is an impetus to invest and an amortization of constant value debt. Minor fraction credit repayment defaults are factored into credit interest rates. The IRS gets a cut of every defaulted loan now realized as debtor income. If 3% repayment failure is good, more is better. 50% default is Social Security aborning - and who dares argue with that?

This is one of your best columns, Jim! As you point out, all aspects of our lives are simultaneously disintegrating:

We are seeing a comprehensive failure of leadership in every sector and every level of American life - in politics, business, banking, education, news media, medicine, and the clergy.

But has this destructive failure come about by mere chance? Or, is there a group of people operating behind the scenes to create situations that give them global control?

At the moment, banking is disintegrating. It's happening because the end of regular, predictable, cyclical, industrial growth means the end of our ability to generate credit without limits,

So, lets follow the money. Where did it go and who ultimately benefits from this enormous transfer of wealth?

and in fact we passed this point by stealth some time ago leaving the banks in "Wile E. Coyote" suspension above an abyss, where they have lately been joined by government at all levels and the indebted citizens of the land.

So what's going on here? Are we now under the control of international bankers who are using all of the world's governments to enforce their global fascism? Is this an accidental occurrence?

It's something to think about, isn't it?

Jim,

Very interesting as usual. I do read Krugman from time to time and while he seems to be a bit more insightful than most MSE's, he doesn't question growth and the economy based on it so he'll never be an informed source for me. I did want to comment on your claim that Capitalism is not an ideology. Certainly it was not conceived as one but has certainly evolved into one. Since the definition according to one dictionary definition states that an ideology is, "the body of doctrine, myth, belief, etc., that guides an individual, social movement, institution, class, or large group." and Capitalism surely has structured a doctrine guiding this society and culture.

No wonder that philosophers right and left have written extensively of Capitalism with this construct in mind. I agree that it was originally intended as a simple set of tools to grow capital and create wealth. But it has evolved to develop appendages that influences or controls the media, jurisprudence, social thought and action, etc.

And I'd say Capitalism 3.0 or our current version is perhaps the most dangerous threat to the ecosystem, economy, and human life and culture. Yes, relocalization is the way to go but as stated above, there are an amazing number of barriers and obstacles to relocalizing. The parallel culture has to develop unabated and unhindered.

Christopher R.
The Localizer Blog

Better make sure you are not using terminator seeds from Monsanto, which by the way are the only ones being introduced to farmers in Iraq, not to mention their prevalence in the USA.

Kunstler is correct about Peak Oil an a lot of things. But fails to understand what the elites are really doing! Understanding 911 is the key to understanding everything going on today.

When the real crash occurs, it will be beyond your wildest imagination. You’re worst nightmares will come true. If you are unable to protect yourself from desperate people; if you are unprepared to feed, clothe and shelter yourself; it will be “game over” for you in the worst possible way.

But, I’m sure you’ll be whistling “don’t worry, be happy” as you are being raped, stabbed and eaten alive.

Jim,

Thank you for another great column. Yes, I agree, the MSM has gone totally into Na-Na land, providing news and entertainment that is totally out of step with what is actually going on in the world - at least the key important issues that every consumer - oops, I mean CITIZEN, should know about.

The TV has become so useless we rarely turn it on, unless there are weather warnings!

Yes, the future is looking pretty uncertain for our young people, those in diapers to those graduating high school and college. It is becoming increasingly obvious that they will end up bearing the brunt of the consequences of the last decades of a overheated consumer society.

Many young people voted for "change", however, that change has proven slow at coming. However, turning this monster "economic system" around is a Titanic task and the dire state of things has been a long time in the making. Yet, most people appear to be in total denial about the severity of the situation, especially regarding the consequences of peak oil and climate change and how that is going to totally reshape the economy and living arrangements.

Despite all of these problems, one of America's best "exports" these days appears to be the very lifestyle and worldview that is not functioning well anymore. India, China and much of the world is buying into this sustainable system called the American Dream, just as it is rapidly deflating into what is looking more and more like the "American nightmare".

I've been to India a few times and am always impressed by their highly localized market system that works quite well - even during the many "power cuts". This basic economy keeps on working in spite of hours or even days without electricity. Yet, on each visit I see more "western" influences, especially many more personal cars, larger homes, air conditioning, big shopping malls, electronics, etc. Just as the world is hitting peak oil and peak resources they are cranking up the demand for more "consumer" goods and services. The young people there are looking keenly to the west and especially to the USA and increasingly embracing the western culture. A big mistake, I think.

Yet those countries that have held on to the more traditional methods of farming, marketing and living may be better off in the long run. They are already localized and have a sustainable agriculture and business system, on their small scales. They still use oxen in the fields and travel locally mostly on foot. They are “peak-oil ready”, fully “plug and play” without all the fancy gadgets -and probably don’t have a clue as to how much better off they are in the grand scheme of things – or maybe they do!



Thirty Five years ago when Vietnam was the hot issue debate was about maintaining the existing state of affairs or committing to radical change. Radical because any change to the status quo is always considered radical, fought tooth and nail. Today the debate is about maintaining an existing state of affairs or committing to change, radical change.
Thirty Five years ago the number of people who wanted change were huge. Enough people to disrupt the status quo and make the powerful fearful. It took millions of people and the disruption to the conservative agenda was only temporary. The draft provided cannon fodder and there were enough men who did not want to go to Vietnam to get really pissed and make a difference.
Uncle Sam had to figure out how to make sure such a thing never happened again. Embedded journalism, the demise of the free press and a firm conservative headlock on the media has made sure that the status quo is safe and secure, for now.
If there is any hope of changing things it won't happen without 'peakers' organizing into a cohesive and identifiable movement. Quiet mumblings of protest and the unfocused wanking going on now is not going to cut it.
We read Kunstler every week and comfort ourselvers as being intelligent and base our view of the world on facts and evidence. We wish that life would continue as it always has because we want it to. But we also think and know enough not to confuse our desires with truth, we resist our natural human desire to do exactly that.
Wishing will not make our future secure any more than wishing could have kept the Titanic afloat, we need to do more.

CORRECTION to my last post:

"India, China and much of the world is buying into this sustainable system called the American Dream"

This should have been "UNSUSTAINABLE" instead of "SUSTAINABLE".

Sappiness seems to stalk about the land like some monstrous Godzilla of dementia. Last night, here in the Pacific NW there was a good deal of media attention devoted in the lokel yokel evening news to Copper the Rabbit. Copper it seems, had been taken to an animal shelter somewhere down near Tacoma and pulled a Monty Python and The Holy Grail routine and turned rogue/quasi-killer and savagely bitten his handler, a HUGE and FATAL politically incorrect no-no for a critter at the tender mercies of the animal shelter boyz. Understandably, they have a limited patience with such behavior and took it INTO THEIR SILLY HEADS to announce they were going to euthanize Copper. Well the rabbit rights crowd would hear nothing of the SORT. So there were were, gentle reader, subjected to a five minute news story at the top of the hour about how Copper was spared a days existence not because of the uproar, but because the vet who is to do the dirty deed today couldn't make it down to the shelter on Sunday.

This is our news fodder here in sappy Seattle, where everyone is 'nice' and 'having a nice day' is de trop/goes without saying.

I'm not sure but I think there was a story about 10 years ago about firemen rescuing a cat out of a tree.

Sappiness seems to stalk about the land like some monstrous Godzilla of dementia. Last night, here in the Pacific NW there was a good deal of media attention devoted in the lokel yokel evening news to Copper the Rabbit. Copper it seems, had been taken to an animal shelter somewhere down near Tacoma and pulled a Monty Python and The Holy Grail routine and turned rogue/quasi-killer and savagely bitten his handler, a HUGE and FATAL politically incorrect no-no for a critter at the tender mercies of the animal shelter boyz. Understandably, they have a limited patience with such behavior and took it INTO THEIR SILLY HEADS to announce they were going to euthanize Copper. Well the rabbit rights crowd would hear nothing of the SORT. So there were were, gentle reader, subjected to a five minute news story at the top of the hour about how Copper was spared a days existence not because of the uproar, but because the vet who is to do the dirty deed today couldn't make it down to the shelter on Sunday.

This is our news fodder here in sappy Seattle, where everyone is 'nice' and 'having a nice day' is de trop/goes without saying.

I'm not sure but I think there was a story about 10 years ago about firemen rescuing a cat out of a tree.

Well that's not bad then at all.

Yes jimbo here has a decent cottage industry on this site, it's true. good for him, and good luck to you and your kids

" As if the American people have no other purpose except to buy things? Or is that that the only way an "economist" can imagine them?"

Well, it rather appears that is the only way the CHINESE can imagine them...

" As if the American people have no other purpose except to buy things? Or is that that the only way an "economist" can imagine them?"

Well, it rather appears that is the only way the CHINESE can imagine them... :)

Once the decision was made that TV news had to be a "profit center," everything changed, forever. Local news dove to the LCD and national networks followed suit. At the same time, they closed foreign bureaus and started to use interns to run the operations. And today? Everyone on television is beautiful! I have a corollary; the prettier the talent, the more vacuous the news has become.

Finally, almost all news is today the product of massive multi-national corporations with zero concern for the "public interest, convenience and necessity," to quote the FCC regulations of a bygone era. Money rules, and that's why some dipshit quotes the stats on a moronic vampire movie. Of course, there's an equal chance that their corporation has a vested interest in that piece of "entertainment" as well.

"The terrible 'if's' accumulate."

Winston Churchill, prior to the outbreak of WWI quoted in the frontspiece of Barbara Tuchman's legendary work on The Great War THE GUNS OF AUGUST

Right on, Jim. I was thinking exactly the same thing when that "News" update was broadcast during 60 Minutes.

We are a nation of spoon fed imbeciles led by empty headed puppeteers.

Yeah it is. Nero is nothing. Not, when it burns, more like, a few years before. Caligula. This emperor saw something. That is, historians are rational (according to the book), and Caligula was unstable, mentally. He was difficult to explain. Nobody knew what he was thinking. Well, if that's the case, is that the reader's fault? I thought you were a historian. Rulers can be crazy. You aren't much good as a historian, either. Not to mention: you gave up. How about we execute historians and economists until one of them does something right?

Caligula executed children in front of their parents. He invited a father who's child he executed to a dinner following rhe execution where he joked and jested,this father a few tables away. Yes? So, otherwise it's all good? No. It's all good anyway. That's the nature of, It's all good. I don't see any behavior of Caligula that I can't understand, condone, or encourage. This was Rome. Consumer? You should try romantic, romance, the Romance Languages. I say cut your losses and bring this monster down before we end up literally transferring its genes to our offspring. So what's jest?

The American people, it is good of you to say, but it is any televised people. Anyone raised on television is psychotically insistant upon hearing exactly what is going on, and will brook no other subjects. Nobody can talk about the economy until we are done with Health Care. Either talk Health Care and say how 46 million clusterfucksters fucked up and we didn't, or shut up. Yeah, I am saying that, in the beginning, everyone is mentally ill. However, mental illness is a flag of convenience. It is much less in scope than even one airburst nuke over, say, Yemen. Any time you want to drop it by the wayside and get on with your life, it goes away like that (snaps fingers). It has a slight cure. Nero was a little squat ugly baby to Caligula, and CALIGULA was 24. After the beginning, when you shoot people in the head, cute little Paris Hilton mental illness is not so.

Why should we ask that the communiques be issued without the word consumer? We don't care. Much better you declare war on us and keep all the women on your side.

I was curious why I put this in:

You'll catch Hep C or AIDS. In the revolution, the citizen-soldiers have to maintain their fighting capability. Rub shit all over yourself. You'll blend in.

unquote

It was because I was about to turn on TV and a woman named BROWNER was on it. She's the assistant ot the president on energy. But, she couldn't shut up about health care.

I kid you not. Thinking that you are going to turn on the TV and see something on health care without being willing to change the channel is sick like a skull so soft it just pushes in.

But no. They're anti-intellectual, anti-research. If it isn't Hannah Montana, they'll switch you off. The language has altered right out of all semblance to reality (and normalcy), because it has been kidnaped by media qua corporatism qua capitalism, Mr. JHK. You got to hit the high botes in five words or less or you lose your audience. They have no attention span. Watching TV, and rwading blogs on the internet is spare time, time to be entertained. They have a beer gut.

Of course, none of this lets off the real greedy criminals for their part. This time bomb has been swallowed and is set to kill us if we don't do something. At least make inroads into that government to shut them up. I think they're lying. But, I'm not sure. Quickly, how many ppl moved to the sacto valley?

These graphs are hard to read. You need to prune statistics. The net migration appears to be half of what Kunstler said in Geography. At 700,000 for 20 years, that is 35,000 per year. It is 17,000. I think.

The other two things are, is peak oil real, is global warming real. Because, revolution is real, whether a reason for it exists or not. The internet's panic button may be more akin to Y2K than these other things.

I'm not saying there's nothing to worry about. That's one of the deals, that thermo dictates that this is not conspiratorial forces, this is a geological imperative. If it was somebody's fault, all we'd have to change would be them. That's been done (JFK 1963, 46 years, one day. JFK's age, ugh. He was 46).

So, I was thinking Brown, her name's Browner, I wrote about how to make yourself browner, and (check)


Of course, I'm in Portland, Oregon, an unusually literate science-respecting city where perhaps more people "get it" than in other places.

This is the sickest. We don't want respect. Try priests and judges. It's okay. You didn't make it up.

Troops are for 'troop movements'. A country at war makes war with its consumers. We need to indict you for giving away trop movements without redefining terms. To soldier means to dog it. Until proven otherwise, the Army is not to be poured gasoline on and set afire in the ditch where they died.

Auggggh, what a headache. The glass is half-full.

Right on, Jim. I was thinking exactly the same thing when that "News" update was broadcast during 60 Minutes.

We are a nation of spoon fed imbeciles led by empty headed puppeteers.

Right on, Jim. I was thinking exactly the same thing when that "News" update was broadcast during 60 Minutes.

We are a nation of spoon fed imbeciles led by empty headed puppeteers.

As alternative economist Hazel Henderson used to say, "Economics is a brain disease". It's simply crazy-more often than not just a lot of excuses for thievery as if the way things are is the way things have to be.

The barbarians are coming. Don't forget to include weapons with your seeds and generators. Utah Co-Housing Guy: what weapons does your community have? Or are you just going to let the Mormons protect you? They're loaded for bear btw. Remember though-nothing in life is free. If you lean on them, they will demand payment of some kind. Perhaps your produce-wallah, serfs again!

Nothing is more inane than plans for inner city survivalism. Gardens in the inner city? Whose going to protect them? They'll walk right up and take what they want while you are digging! Get out of the cities-they're going to be hell holes especially if you are a lighter shade of pale. Get with your own kind; like unto like as it was in the Ark. Let the world see what minorities can do when left to their devices. Let the world see what they will do. And let the world see what Whites can do when unencumbered by the same.

Chubbz: why would you have allowed your kid to piss away so much time, money and effort on something as banal and frothy and useless as "film school"

maybe for the same reason I "let" my kid go to film school - because he wanted to despite my best efforts.

"unless two generations can agree that is no progress"

JHK and many of his fans would be well advised to read “The Black Swan”. It is illuminating not just for what it says about what can happen (just about anything) but how we choose to decide what we THINK will happen. He examines several logical problems and fallacies including our tendency to seek confirmation of our own views while ignoring contrary information, as well as the problem of living in an information rich environment where there is often enough data to argue diametrically opposing positions.

While “highly improbable” events do happen more often then conventional wisdom would allow, they are still “highly improbable” and we should not become overly subscribed to any notions of what we or some pundit we like to read wants us to believe, based on a persuasive argument utilizing a few dramatic data points.

The subtitle of “The Black Swan” should be something like “the fallacy of predictability” because accounts of foreseeing the future are mostly examined and touted from the standpoint of looking backward and filtering the takeaway data based on knowing what ultimately did occur.

What I notice on this blog is how often posters are establishing positions on PO or societal collapse based on emotional considerations, then looking for support from various “expert” sources or fellow emotionally involved lay people.

Bottom line: While predicting the timing of collapse may be morally satisfying in some ways, (especially if you are an environmentalist etc.) it is not a position in which one should place much confidence.

If I were to say that “societal collapse is nearly impossible” (something I do not believe), the odds are good that I will die being able to say on my death bed to my detractors, “See....I told you so.”

Chubbz: why would you have allowed your kid to piss away so much time, money and effort on something as banal and frothy and useless as "film school"

maybe for the same reason I "let" my kid go to film school - because he wanted to despite my best efforts.

"unless two generations can agree that is no progress"

Joe is a boy-either psychologically or chronologically. Let him be. As the Father says in the "Yearling"-Let him build his waterwheels as he may; soon he wont even care to."

On the subject of wheels: does anyone have any info on using stationary bicycles to generate power and to grind grain?

I haven't been able to watch the news for years, for the very reason cited. It's all infotainment anymore, with the very obvious purpose of distracting the masses from the clusterfuck that is going on in Washington and Wall Street.

It's equally obvious that the reason for this circus is that the PTB firmly believe that if only they can convince us consumers to get back to the trough somehow, the magic will continue and the economy will recover. If you only believe!!!

The other reason is to forestall the collapse long enough for them to try to protect their own assets. The rich are well aware that the free ride is over and things are about to get tough. As long as they can keep the average person from figuring it out, though, they have time to hire guard and put up electric fencing around the mansion, or move the enclave to a 3rd world country where they should fit right in.

JHK and many of his fans would be well advised to read “The Black Swan”. It is illuminating not just for what it says about what can happen (just about anything) but how we choose to decide what we THINK will happen. He examines several logical problems and fallacies including our tendency to seek confirmation of our own views while ignoring contrary information, as well as the problem of living in an information rich environment where there is often enough data to argue diametrically opposing positions.

While “highly improbable” events do happen more often then conventional wisdom would allow, they are still “highly improbable” and we should not become overly subscribed to any notions of what we or some pundit we like to read wants us to believe, based on a persuasive argument utilizing a few dramatic data points.

The subtitle of “The Black Swan” should be something like “the fallacy of predictability” because accounts of foreseeing the future are mostly examined and touted from the standpoint of looking backward and filtering the takeaway data based on knowing what ultimately did occur.

What I notice on this blog is how often posters are establishing positions on PO or societal collapse based on emotional considerations, then looking for support from various “expert” sources or fellow emotionally involved lay people.

Bottom line: While predicting the timing of collapse may be morally satisfying in some ways, (especially if you are an environmentalist etc.) it is not a position in which one should place much confidence.

If I were to say that “societal collapse is nearly impossible” (something I do not believe), the odds are good that I will die being able to say on my death bed to my detractors, “See....I told you so.”

Zeitgeist, the Movie

Directed by Peter Joseph
Produced by Peter Joseph[1]
Written by Peter Joseph
Music by Peter Joseph
Editing by Peter Joseph
Distributed by GMP LLC[2]
Release date(s) 2007
Running time 122 min
Language English
Followed by Zeitgeist: Addendum
Zeitgeist, the Movie is a 2007 documentary film by Peter Joseph about historical and modern conspiracies, including the origins of Christianity, the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, and the banking system.

A sequel, Zeitgeist: Addendum, advocates a technology-based social system influenced by the ideas of Jacque Fresco and The Venus Project.[3]

MONTANA JOE

You left this one out. So, Joe Montana or Montana Joe or whatever it is you are calling yourself these days (I like the names that could be ladies's. I say, if you look like a girl, and even if your name is a boy's, I'm calling you 'she'. I like her to have a little blonde moustache). Don't worry. You didn't read that, did you? It's in parentheseeses. Don't be afraid. Just, if I'm going to jail, or you're going to beat me up, know this: You won't be getting a cherry.

Now, wouldn't you say, that if any appeals to the emotions are made, that the content of the piece is false? Okay, why are we getting mad now. Nothing makes me mad. People who can get mad will be made mad, Jack. Has nothing to do with reality. You are just mad over something because the 9/11 people pushed your buttons.

I couldn't have made you pregnant because I had that jimi hat on tight. See what I did there? I denied it, and saying that the condom was tight didn't do anything to hurt my reputation for having enourmous girth.

I think I could make you thirsty by using the right words on you.

Administer the MMPI to these crazy-as-a-bedbug conspiracy theorists, sez me. That's why they put Minnesota in there and not Montana. They're cuckoo in Montana.

It's just an M now. Bust a move. Make it Montana.

Ever notice how that American flag is as inflammatory as a yellowjacket, with the aposematic color scheme. Stars for hurt. Stripes for poison.

May I assume that it is still real where what we do now may affect the future? What we do now, that doesn't affect the past? Are you sure about your answer?

I had no idea 911 was an inside job until 2006.

It took me exactly 37 days. Today I am convinced, that anyone who “claims to be intelligent” will come to the same conclusion I did (and 31 of my friends and family, and counting) after I studied/researched/verified/confirmed the evidence surrounding 911.

“delusional as nine-eleven, conspiracy freaks.” I assure you Monkey Muffin, that I am neither delusional, nor a freak. What I have found is that people who make comments like you have been brainwashed by O’Rielly, Hanity, Beck, etc.

Moreover, you probably do not know anything about 911 at all, except that 19 terrorists did it. Da. Many of the people you call delusional freaks are Ph.d’s, MA’s, MBA’s, Architects, Engineers, etc.

You wouldn’t last 60 seconds in a debate over empirical 911 evidence. For instance how does Monkey Muffin explain massive steel and concrete (reinforced concrete, structural steel engineered structures) structures falling into themselves, the path of MOST RESISTANCE, at freefall speed? (Physically impossible, end of story.)

You explain this one issue and I’ll let you call me anything you want.

America has an old, and venerable, tradition of commutarianism, right from the Mayflower Compact to the Rex Tugwell's Resettlement Administration during the Roosevelt administration.

It is time to refreshen this legacy and return to the tradition of community formation that saw its last efflorescence in the 1960's.

There are already signs this is happenening, with the creation of almost 200 cohousing communities in the United States. One is just down the road from Mr. Kunstler: Ecovillage at Ithaca. When you speak of relocalization, Jim, why not call attention to these efforts? Or better yet, visit one yourself. I'm sure your readers and listeners would be interested in your reaction.

In the meantime, here in Utah, we continue to plug away at the creation of the UTAH VALLEY COMMONS, a cohousing ecovillage located near Provo.

Best wishes,
Charles W. Nuckolls
www.utahvalleycommons.com

America has an old, and venerable, tradition of commutarianism, right from the Mayflower Compact to the Rex Tugwell's Resettlement Administration during the Roosevelt administration.

It is time to refreshen this legacy and return to the tradition of community formation that saw its last efflorescence in the 1960's.

There are already signs this is happenening, with the creation of almost 200 cohousing communities in the United States. One is just down the road from Mr. Kunstler: Ecovillage at Ithaca. When you speak of relocalization, Jim, why not call attention to these efforts? Or better yet, visit one yourself. I'm sure your readers and listeners would be interested in your reaction.

In the meantime, here in Utah, we continue to plug away at the creation of the UTAH VALLEY COMMONS, a cohousing ecovillage located near Provo.

Best wishes,
Charles W. Nuckolls
www.utahvalleycommons.com

He read that. He reads as fast as he can turn the pages, and he posted the phrase, "black swan" within the past month.

dale:

Thanks for reminding me about Black Swan, I have meant to read that but haven't gotten to it yet.


One personal observation on improbable events, however:

Some things that would be improbable under normal circumstances may have a far greater likelihood of happening within a society whose financial system is run in a dysfunctional manner.

Thus, if the US had prudent economic and monetary policies the derivatives fiasco would in my view have been a "black swan" type of event. However, when our economic policy makers:

1). Set interest rates to absurdly low artificial levels.

2). Encourages massive lending to finance homes etc. to people that don't come close to being able to afford them.

3). Permits the creation of debt instruments with built-in time bombs (e.g. option ARMs, etc)

4). Creates massive social programs built on debt that can never be paid back, or alternatively based on the rampant inflationary printing of money that has no backing.

5). Allows the generation of Frankenstinian financial instruments, allows rating agencies to use voodoo analytical methods to declare them AAA grade, and allows them to be traded indisciminately such that the originators of bad debt are able to shovel off their dressed-up garbage to other financial institutions, governments, and/or individuals and thus transfer the consequences of their bad business practices onto gullible other parties.

6). Provides massive government bailouts to insulate those left holding the bag from the consequences of their reckless financial activities.


In the light of all these reckless policies on the part of government and the quasi-governmental Federal Reserve, a financial meltdown was, in hindsight, not a "who would ever think this could happen" type event, but an inevitability.

"I'm sorry to burden the reader with so many questions, but the idiots running the mainstream news media in this land are not doing it and somebody has to."

No sweat, Mr. K!
I'm pretty sure most everyone here asks themselves some gritty questions (and dark answers loom always). I don't believe it's an unhealthy thing to "git yer mind right". Rosy scenarios are for TV believers, woe unto them.

Personally, I'm gonna miss the ease of heavy equipment. Those of you who have operated these diesel monstrosities know whereof I speak. I'm definitely not looking forward to all the hard manual work (yielding little result at days' end).

Cheese an crackers, got all muddy, I gots to purchase me some more hand tools... preferably older well-made ones; although the Chinese imports are getting better (while we can still get them, that is). Always check the garage sales, people don't value the stuff that "works". That layer of rust comes off with use...

Best of luck, I do b'lieve the levee of hubris is starting to spring a few crucial leaks.

America has an old, and venerable, tradition of commutarianism, right from the Mayflower Compact to the Rex Tugwell's Resettlement Administration during the Roosevelt administration.

It is time to refreshen this legacy and return to the tradition of community formation that saw its last efflorescence in the 1960's.

There are already signs this is happenening, with the creation of almost 200 cohousing communities in the United States. One is just down the road from Mr. Kunstler: Ecovillage at Ithaca. When you speak of relocalization, Jim, why not call attention to these efforts? Or better yet, visit one yourself. I'm sure your readers and listeners would be interested in your reaction.

In the meantime, here in Utah, we continue to plug away at the creation of the UTAH VALLEY COMMONS, a cohousing ecovillage located near Provo.

Best wishes,
Charles W. Nuckolls
www.utahvalleycommons.com

I follow your blog and read your post on the "mcmansion" lifestyle......it has for many years been a matter of outrage to me that California, AND American taxpayers, insure the lifestyles of rich mansion-dwellers on California's Fire Coast.

You'd better know that if these folks were dependent upon private insurance companies, they wouldn't be building $6M houses there and they sure as hell would't be able to REbuild them after one of the yearly firestorms.

Only the California Fair Plan, which is the only insurance you can get for a house in areas like this, and federal emergency aid, enable coast dwellers to rebuild and rebuild, their pretentious homes bigger and more pretentious and preposterous with every rebuild.

CA is now deeply broke and has a really good excuse to revamp it's Fair Plan, the state-subsidized fire insurance, and hazard-zone these areas. Let the next time these mansions implode in a mountain firestorm be the last- no more taxpayer funded rebuilds for these spoiled morons.

Let's see if any CA legislator has the will to suggest this, ever.

Shut up, Joe. (j/k ;)
I'm just jealous I can't get here earlier.

Bravo! Mr. K.

Count me as one who is thoroughly disgusted with being labeled a "consumer" first and foremost by everyone from the president on down.

Eff that.

My consumption has dropped dramatically and will continue to decline to the point of necessities only. I have all I need and most of what I want. The total sum of our Christmas gifting this year will consist of cash, as requested by our one child and a gift of cash to my mother-in-law who lives on a very, very fixed income.

Eat that, BEAST.

A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

* From bondage to spiritual faith;
* From spiritual faith to great courage;
* From courage to liberty;
* From liberty to abundance;
* From abundance to complacency;
* From complacency to apathy;
* From apathy to dependence;
* From dependence back into bondage.

Proper footnote needed for above quote...Alexander Fraser Tytler, Lord Woodhouselee (15 October 1747 - 5 January 1813) was a Scottish-born British lawyer and writer. His son was Patrick Fraser Tytler, traveller and historian.

But most well heeled readers here already knew that!

Proper footnote needed for above quote...Alexander Fraser Tytler, Lord Woodhouselee (15 October 1747 - 5 January 1813) was a Scottish-born British lawyer and writer. His son was Patrick Fraser Tytler, traveller and historian.

But most well heeled readers here already knew that!

No, we'd rather hit every issue taken as one, in the sheer hallucinatory feel of believing in that, and besides, what is happening here is that you are permitted, in an argument, to direct neither which specific fallacy to address nor who is available to do so, because this is logical, not authoritarian, and scientific, not authoritarian. That would be nice if I could direct the other side's argument. I'd win them all.

This particular one is static strength. And, the building collapsed at dynamic loads.

How large are such loads?

Do they have to be sustained? At free fall, no. 32 ft/sec^2 means the shit will break to pancake mix about instantly.

Perhaps it is counterintuitive, understanding these loads. Were buildings designed with this in mind, or, were they designed to stand up to wind, or earthquakes? No side is standing. Maybe it tilts, huh? while standing, it's straight. As soon as it gets 0.1 ft out of horizonatlly stacked, we fix it. The top 100' weighed what?

Perhaps it is counterintuitive to believe that objects fall straight down. That's all they do, though. Yeah, if you want to wait for it to lean, it may take longer. Straight down will be fast. Things without support under them fall straight down. Oh, that's your thesis, huh?

Well, let's go back to the strength. Water comes out of the top of a tree, right? Wood is pretty stiff. Plant cells are not flexible. The pressure inside them is 50,000 atmospheres. It is called xylem stem pressure. The pressure of collapsing bubbles will completely carve away metal in a water pump. That's called cavitation. Once again, 50,000 atm. Concrete is strongest under compression. It is also stronger with tension cables, and with rebar. I wouldn't say it was twice as strong. Did you think of bubbles as strong, or the opposite of strong, which is ripping the shit out of "strong" things?

They have a machine to test concrete, and it always crushes it, but I doubt it approaches these loads. The building is moving both quickly, but more important for high momentum, it's heavy. And, it's a record-holder. That wasn't ever done on purpose.

Oh, except this time.

Resink, I mean, rethink the Titanic. Raise the Titanic because it's unsinkable.

I know what you're doing. You're trying to get us not to bring down the Sears Tower. We can't do it without an inside army of CIA guys to plant the explosives? Well, somebody ought to take you up on that.

Airplane, pleeeeeease. I'll fly.

"Uh, can't we design a sustainable building that you can pile-drive into itself?"

"Well, is it a building, or is it a ship?"

"This one's a little bit of both."

"Oh, a wise guy."

"Not in the least. I just hope that ain't emblematic for our whole century."

Remember what they said? A plane flew into the world Trade Center.

"Okay, so flew 'into'. You mean it clips it going by."

"Umm, nah."

"Okay, so one of 'em, then."

"Ah. No."

"Well it doesn't look good for foreign relations."

"Ya think?"

They also said somebody took a pot shot at President Kennedy. A pot shot? This was an ace kill with no retribution, none of those defiant looks back like Ronald Reagan. This was God guiding someone's hand, if you believe in that sort of thing.

NIST? Oh my god, you'll believe anything. Fefe did you know that the sun orbits the earth, and that if you go too far you'll fall off the edge of the world?

You already know that don't you.

Nice language.

You are an ignorant fool who probably did not even graduate from middle school.

Isjogren,
Good points, and I agree with your analysis that attempts to maintain the status quo are quite possibly making the likelihood of further financial decline more, rather than less likely....or not. This type of “collapse” is however, not the kind to which JHK and many here subscribe.

The points you make might be good cause for an eventual economic depression like event, which compared to the apocalyptic scenarios of PO etc. might be more like a black sparrow than a black swan, something that happens once or twice every hundred years. The sort of collapse “clusterfuck” is referring to is more on the order of a once or twice every millennium event.

It always surprises me how many, even obviously well educated people, (like Dr. Doom for example) are unable to see past the emotional bias of their views on this topic, and suppose they are among a small group of people who can foresee extremely rare occurrences with something like 20-20 vision.

Does it appear that the progression of an out of control world human population, climate change, etc. portend negative consequences eventually? I would say that is quite likely, and in terms of the totality of Earth history this sort of thing may not even be that rare of an event. Asteroid strikes decimating animal populations, that is certainly a black swan. Large fluctuations in species populations, maybe not so much so.

It's all relative of course, if it kills you I guess it's a black swan, if not maybe something less. The point of trying to see this in perspective might give someone a more dispassionate view of these world events. Things that inevitable happen with a certain periodicity, but which cannot be precisely known or predicted, and which in the long view are morally neutral.

We have had a tendency in recent years to view ourselves as being outside of nature and its processes. I would suggest that is not the case, and what happens to us is similar to fluctuations in all natural processes. The Earth itself will abide, it doesn't need our help to do so. That we think it does is just another example of our self centered egotism.

NIST? Oh my god, you'll believe anything. Fefe did you know that the sun orbits the earth, and that if you go too far you'll fall off the edge of the world?

You already know that don't you.

Nice language.

You are an ignorant fool who probably did not even graduate from middle school.

I don't like being called a consumer instead of a citizen either. But it does fit my assigned role by the ruling class.

I don't like calling the President the "commander in chief" of the country either. What does that make us? Not consumers, but soldiers, bound to obey without question.

Capitalism is not an ideology, but it isn't a set of laws either. (Although the laws of society benefit the capitalists and not the rest of us.)

Capitalism is an organization of society in which a small group of people owns the means of production and the rest of the people sell their ability to work. Every year the means of production concentrates in fewer hands and more people become wage workers.

The owners can do what they want with their property. If they wish to shut down a factory and move it to China, throwing thousands of people out of work, the law says they can. If the people stay in the factory and operate it for the benefit of themselves and the community, the law says they can't.

If the owners find it cheaper to dump toxins into the air or water, which are common property, instead of reclaiming or containing the toxins, or converting to a non=toxic procedure, the laws may say they can, or the laws may say they can't, but the owners pay off the regulators, and -presto- they can.

The capitalists get the profit and the fish pay. Or each individual family with a child with leukemia pays. Or the hundreds who have asthma attacks pay.

Although we are told that this is the best possible way to organize society, I disagree.

In 200 years of capitalism our beautiful planet, once teaming with life, has been stripped and plundered. Forests, rivers, animals, plains, oceans once fertile and bountiful now lie buried under trash, gasping for air and losing species at an alarming rate.

And those who can see that we cannot go on borrowing, cannot go on burning oil, cannot go on paving over the land, can't see that we can't go on letting a small group of people decide all of our futures for their profit.

Sad.

Thanks, "Thomas99", for the great quote attributed to Chris Martenson:

"IF YOU LOCK THREE ECONOMISTS IN THE BASEMENT, THEY WON'T WORRY ABOUT STARVING - BECAUSE THEY THEY KNOW THEIR GRUMBLING BELLIES WILL CAUSE SANDWICHES TO APPEAR."

Worth repeating, no? Too bad TIME magazine didn't print that one in their "Letters" department after Milton Freidman's long overdue departure.

Me - ashamed? Better word, methinks: embarrassed. And a little bit angry. Certainly, pretty disappointed in the performance of a certain "Intelligently Designed" species.

Sorry to say, life on this planet has been substantially hijacked by the capitalist profit motive, which would sell its offspring into Hell for little action at the tables.

My wife and I used to get rankled when we'd hear some of our local Peasants shrug off our gnashings about the course of events with: "I'm not worried. It's in God's hands." (Sheesh!)

Lately, I'm truly sorry to say that I don't think there is much any of us can do to save our own asses, much less anyone else's. "Events are in the saddle, and they are riding us now." The cumulative antics of Industrial Civilization have so much trajectorial inertial mass going, that there will be no stopping the cumulative crashes we now see escalating.

And, yet, I am still occasionally inspired to pick up a hoe - or a pitchfork - to: 1) either try to do something constructive for myself, or; 2) let the powers that be know that some of the Peasants are still paying attention to what's being done in our name.

Gloom and doom? Piffle! What? Me worry? Nah!
My grave is half full.

Thanks, "Thomas99", for the great quote attributed to Chris Martenson:

"IF YOU LOCK THREE ECONOMISTS IN THE BASEMENT, THEY WON'T WORRY ABOUT STARVING - BECAUSE THEY THEY KNOW THEIR GRUMBLING BELLIES WILL CAUSE SANDWICHES TO APPEAR."

Worth repeating, no? Too bad TIME magazine didn't print that one in their "Letters" department after Milton Freidman's long overdue departure.

Me - ashamed? Better word, methinks: embarrassed. And a little bit angry. Certainly, pretty disappointed in the performance of a certain "Intelligently Designed" species.

Sorry to say, life on this planet has been substantially hijacked by the capitalist profit motive, which would sell its offspring into Hell for little action at the tables.

My wife and I used to get rankled when we'd hear some of our local Peasants shrug off our gnashings about the course of events with: "I'm not worried. It's in God's hands." (Sheesh!)

Lately, I'm truly sorry to say that I don't think there is much any of us can do to save our own asses, much less anyone else's. "Events are in the saddle, and they are riding us now." The cumulative antics of Industrial Civilization have so much trajectorial inertial mass going, that there will be no stopping the cumulative crashes we now see escalating.

And, yet, I am still occasionally inspired to pick up a hoe - or a pitchfork - to: 1) either try to do something constructive for myself, or; 2) let the powers that be know that some of the Peasants are still paying attention to what's being done in our name.

Gloom and doom? Piffle! What? Me worry? Nah!
My grave is half full.

And, Montana Joe, I also believed the official story until 2005.

I spent my outrage, as directed, on the attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq, pointing out that there were Saudis on the planes, not Afghans or Iraqis, and why were the Saudis flown out, yada, yada, yada.

And then I saw David Ray Griffin give a speech in which he pointed out that 111 story buildings could not just collapse straight into their own footprints in 9 seconds, leaving not piles of rubble, as would be expected, but clouds of concrete dust, spread over lower Manhattan. Oh, and later they found bits of human bones on the tops of neighboring buildings. How does NIST explain 1/2" bits of bones thrown onto the tops of skyscrapers by fire and gravity?

I understand that JHK censors those who speak of 9-11, but I want you to know that you are not alone in your clear-eyed skepticism.

"Today I am convinced, that anyone who “claims to be intelligent” will come to the same conclusion I did … after I studied/researched/verified/confirmed the evidence surrounding 911."

And how, pray tell, did you verify the information? And what original research did you do? If you have allowed yourself to become convinced, you have done yourself a disservice.

As my wife, an academic, has mordantly observed, reading a bunch of websites is not research. It doesn't help your case, either, that you think Jim Marrs is a reliable source of information.

What you have forgotten is that your position is not strong, but weak: do you suppose you can assemble a detailed and convincing picture, with enough data to satisfy the most rigorous scrutiny, and which meets the rules of evidence?
And which you could publish to scholarly acclaim?

More to the point, are you certain that you could tell the difference between what I've just described and a morass of disinformation, pseudo-science and outright falsehood?

Probably not. So why allow yourself to be convinced?

"The peoples who's land the Europeans stole were not interested in gold as a median of exchange, they were more focused on simple exchange for economic activity, they did not have buffalo skin derivative bundle schemes, they did not have a problem with excessive executive compensation in the leadership of the hunting parties, nor did they have to throw billions of imaginary blankets into a an imaginary “TARP” fund."

A special Thanksgiving essay....

http://www.suburbanempire.com

Caustic Commentary... Biting Opinion...
Suburban Critical.... Empire Chronicle.

If anybody's interested in further pursuing JHK's crucial point about the word "consumer," I wrote about it here:

http://www.consumertrap.com/consumer-bias

We b in trouble...

Thanks for your comments regarding capitalism and communism. Much appreciated!

Thanks for your comments regarding capitalism and communism, Jim. Much appreciated!

JHK, how long do you think Wiley Coyote can stay suspended in air?

I really enjoy your metaphors. The English language is rich to provide you with so many. In 2007 you used metaphors like nausea, mental rot, and casino syndrome. In 2008 you used metaphors like narcolepsy, dropping shoes, and burning down the house.

In 2008 you forecast imminent oil and gas shortages. Instead it looks like oil is going to go back down to $65-$70 per barrel.

There is now more oil than there is storage. Supply is up according to the latest report from the Department of Energy which showed that U.S. crude oil inventories were nearly 6.5% higher than last year – a total of 336.8 million barrels of oil. (Meantime, about 50 million barrels of crude are on short-term storage vessels and another 75 million barrels of distillates are in the Atlantic until storage clears up.)

Demand is down at oil refineries, about 13.8 million barrels per day –- one million barrels lower than a year ago. (Not to mention they’re only operating at an average of about 80% capacity.)

How long ago was it we had $4.00 a gallon gasoline and $100 a barrel oil? When will those Wiley Coyote days return?

Are you still forecasting oil and gasoline shortages as imminent, as you did in 2008? It's almost 2010 and the shortages have yet to appear.

Apparently Wiley Coyote can stay suspended in air for quite some time. I would guess about 47 years more, until the Arctic gas and oil supplies are exhausted. (blink of an eye in geologic time)

Jaego Scorzne--
You're banned too.
I am not retailing malicious racism on this site and don't want to hear from you anymore.
--Jim
==================================
Thanks Jim....about time I would say!

Aren't you ashamed?

No Jim im not! why should i be? Last nite i was talking to a downsized techie in silicon valley.I was laughing about how 'if americans average 1000 or so hours a year of Tv + movies+ violent egames...well we are disconnected to their [ahem] culture'!!!
as far as krugman goes HE GETS PAID TO LIE...JUST LIKE GREENSPAN BEFORE HIM....
and jim thanks for reporting on the idiot box,,its not fer nothing that its called that...and it has been a major controller and ' dumbing down' agent of the power elites.

this am i was takin a walk...at the bus stop a very fat woman on a cell phone says ' i went to the salvation army and couldnt get my free turkey'! then she asks me for money to get on the bus....
i didnt talk to her


' Aren't you ashamed? NOT IN THE LEAST!!!!

she had a cell phone i didnt..whos zoomin who?

JHK have you read "web of debt" by ellen hodgson brown? You might like it.

So now we're banning people with contrarian views... "but because I regard your conspiracy theories as fucking paranoid nonsense. Take your complaints to another site."

So much for free speech, heh Jim? Keep suppressing that which does not readily integrate into your overly simplistic world-view as opposed to working to continually refine it?

“If you would be a real seeker after truth, it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt, as far as possible, all things.” – Rene Descartes

I had heard about you several years ago and have read your blogs, almost all of them as a matter of fact, since I believe there are few that understand our global economic conundrum better.

However, upon seeing how you treat people who dare question authority and seek the truth, I therefore request you ban me, as I no longer wish to partake in anything that censors the truth. I know there are many others out there reading this who agree with me (most will not have the courage to comment).

Good luck

However, upon seeing how you treat people who dare question authority and seek the truth,....
========================================
So in your opinion racist rants are an example of seeking the truth? Please ban yourself, and take all those "seekers of truth" who agree with you along for the ride.

Hey dale,

Maybe you need to actually read the previous posts. I was not defending the one who made racist comments. Better to jump to conclusions however in this day and age. I forgive you.

The book "911 Synthetic Terror" is a terrible, poorly researched piece of garbage lacking any references. You can have my copy for free if you want it. I don't know about the other ones, but if they're at all similar, then I'll pass.

It strikes too much at the American sense of pride to accept that 19 camel jockeys with box cutters got past all our defenses.

But that's exactly what happened. That's the simplest explanation and the most obvious. On the other hand, a vast government conspiracy involving Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz is the exact opposite.

Try reading the 9-11 Commission Report. You might learn something.

chris c. said: " I no longer wish to partake in anything that censors the truth."

There is a difference between government censoring and private banning. A censor is a government official whose primary duty is to scrutinize conduct. Punishment may include prison or death.

CFN is JHK's private blog and he has the right to ban... and you have the right to start your own blog and write whatever you want, precisely because you are not being officially censored.

There is no government censorship here preventing information from reaching citizens. JHK is not even authorized to engage in censorship. He is authorized to ban individuals from CFN, his own creation.

You are free, because you have not been censored, to go elsewhere and read and write whatever you like... with no threat of imprisonment or death.

The NIST report and the 9-11 Commission Report are far more credible and believable than 90% of the 9-11 "inside job" literature out there. And that's being generous.

If all the pieces don't exactly fit together, that's because its an unprecedented event. A 100+ story building has never collapsed before, let alone two of them in quick succession. Anyone who says they could perfectly predict the exact physical outcome from such a destructive event is a simpleton.

Another reason I like the CONVULSION metaphor is because it is a medical metaphor, and like so many medical conditions, the prognosis for recovery is good. In fact, the medical parallels are striking. In the medical literature they call convulsions seizures.

Considering the USA economy to be the patient, read this excerpt from the journal American Family Physician considering:

"While the evaluation and treatment of patients with seizures or epilepsy is often challenging, modern therapy provides many patients with complete seizure control."

And control, stabilization, and recovery is what Obama, Geitner, and company have achieved upon receiving an economy that was almost flatlining.

WASHINGTON (AP)— First-time buyers seized on a tax credit, combined with low mortgage rates and falling prices, to boost home sales in October to their highest level in 2 1/2 years.
Home sales are now nearly 37 percent above their bottom in January, though still 16 percent below their peak in 2005. At the current sales pace, there's a modest seven-month supply for sale. Bidding wars are occurring in some areas.

At the height of the bubble activity my wife and I were able to secure a 110K re-fi (were asked if we were sure that we didn't want more) on the 8 acre rural acreage that we have owned since it was split off from the old upper midwestern family farm 5 years previous to that. That having happened as we approached our 60s. 20 year note at just less than 5%.

All we had to show was our income at the time. And open the doors for their appointed appraisor. No investigation of our furutre income prospects.

No questions asked about the well, septic tank, the condition or usefulness of the various "out buildings", any easements (of which there are some) or our prospects for income past our relatively imminent retirements from jobs that would be considered relatively modest in compensation, by the local norm of that day.

While we still hold those jobs and hopefully will for a few more years between us, properties such as this one have become a drug on the market, as the manufacturing base in the area has left, farms are becoming larger and larger and increasingly mechanized to the point where they require considerably less hired labor to a degree that no non-farm person could ever begin to comprehend.

This loan has become dramatically "under water" in just a short year or two and will, however, be nobly serviced until the first of us hits retirement upon which it will become practically unservicable.

A substantial, well maintained country home....15 miles from anywhere, or nowhere as it might be. Not just cheap...no market. Yet, I have been told that we would be automatically eligible for a new re-fi package based on the improvements we made with the proceeds from the original re-fi and our current, relatively soon to be less, incomes. again, no questions asked regarding our potential retirement income or tangible current assets. The county has it appraised at 140K for tax purposes. At an absolute auction it might bring 25-30.

Owning a property such as this one makes one akin to being the public utilites operator and parks department for a small town. Every last thing about our experience and what we face validates JHKs concerns about the unsustainablitly of remote living and the inability of the system to "reset". Everything that led to the existence of it and our being there is gone, and can't be reconstituted. Not the 'burbs, or the ex-urbs, but no different in the difficulties it presents.

Ok then, if racism is not your axe to grind, I wouldn't want to lump you in with the likes of Jaego. As has been pointed out however, 911 conspiracies are not too far behind racism on the scale of idiocy.

Hang in there, the pendulum may swing back your way sooner than you imagine.

Geez I dunno, perhaps Montana Joe was right. I also have it on good authority that Humpty Dumpty didn't just fall. That's right, he was pushed.

well..it is JKs 'dime'

jim..i was listening to Am radio last nite..i know you dont have much interest it it
someone was saying the SERVICING of the debt in a decade ill be 700? billion a year..well if you remove alcohol/cigs/crime from GDP..what do you get? 5 trillion a year?

Katnip Kid: "Tune the pop culture tabloid news out"

That's easy in theory but the reality (no pun intended) is that tv (I don't know why everyone capitalizes "TV") is so incessant and pervasive that, as a dangerous drug it's become, it gets through to the masses very easily. Of course the people that read Jim's column here "tune it out" but most don't--even those supposedly with a good "education" still will watch the ridiculous morning shows of entertainers like Lauer and Sawyer as a companion while they put their socks on. Some of that infotainment/"news" blather is sure to seep in as "knowledge." Those "stats" that Jim mentioned were ratings helpers, no doubt.

And Diane Sawyer and Lauer ain't givin' up those jobs anytime soon. At least not while there's millions of viewers. They probably think they're "journalists" if you ask them, and most people will tell you they are.

I mean, how do I even know the names of those aforementioned "hosts" of the show--I never watch them. It just seeps in to the culture.

Tune it out?, sorry I don't give the populace credit for being able to do that.

Chubbz, I'm glad I helped you see my son's choice the way I do. All day I've also been thinking, what do you mean 'let' him go to film school? In my parenting experience, 23 year-olds do whatever they like, as long as they're off the gravy train. It's all about influence and example. My older son watched a video where I was interviewed on the subject of 'contentment'. It was about simple living. He said his ambition was to do exactly what I was doing. It doesn't get better than that for a mother. And, just as I didn't worry about their careers while they were goofing off in high school, I know they'll both use their creativity to adapt to whatever hardship the future brings.

Lynn
http://www.10in10diet.com/
Diet for a small footprint and a small grocery bill

As in how? I'm hoping that I dind't present the situation in some maneer thatmade you think that this proerty had some income producing role. It's a glorified house and one quite big yard. ceased to be an income generator when the farm was sold off by other family and creditors.

As farms grew in size, "building sites" no longer needed by farm operatinos were sold off with much success all over ag production areas of the country. Those near to population centers set the price for those out in the middle of nowhere.

There are very few middle income occupational opportunites outside of government work in these areas. Archaic internet services, thus no good home employment opportunities.

Could try to sell free range meat and eggs and home grown vegetables, but to who? How far away. Large numbers of flyover rural Americans who are not among the ever shrinking number of large ag producers are gasoline and culture olcked out. Realtors are telling me that the next big event out here is going to be people enmasse walking into banks and throwing keys on the desk. People will do that if they think they can walk away and move into closer quarters.

I'd suggest putting down your Wendell Berry (I'm a big fan and avid reader, BTW)and re-read some Kunslter and add in some David Korten. More gardens, a few chickens in every back yard and composting toilets aren't going to break down this pile of debt that is plauging us all.

I read a "editorial" by George Will over the weekend where he was going on about how "peak oil" was predicted several times in the past, and yet here we are now, in the 21st Century (and STILL driving piston-engined autos), and haven't run out of oil yet. And he makes the claim that those super-deep water discoveries will save us and provide all the oil we will need for another 50-100 years. And the only reason we can't just drill, baby, drill is because of those darn obstructionist environmentalist.

Again, the short sightedness of our so-called leaders & those that are supposedly in the know.

I also read an interesting article on the Insane Clown Possie, and out of curiosity, Googled them.
Wow! That is exactly what the people of this whole country have become, Insane Clowns.

The whole edifice is on the verge of imploding, and all we get from our leaders and the "news" media is the latest circus.

As someone here once posted, Rome wasn't burned in a day, and the USA will not fall overnight either, but it is on the slippery slope down into the ditches. We in this country are heading for a much lower standard of living for the great majority of citizens, only the small percentage of the Yupper Class will be able to maintain any semblance of our former standard of living.
The great majority are looking a a new, improved Super-Serfhood in thier future.

If you have ever seen the movie The Handmaids Tale, you will have a good idea where the New Right is taking this boat. And its not a nice sunny harbor in the Caribbean.

Anyway, good luck to yall

The American people are not convulsion-ridden, moronic idiots. They are not puppets being controlled by MSM. The American people have autonomy and the ability to act to change their situation. Case in point:

NEW YORK — Consumers got more serious about paying down their credit card debt this summer, a time when deliquencies usually go up.

Cardholders making late payments on bank-issued cards like those bearing MasterCard and Visa logos fell to 1.1 percent for the July-to-September period, down from 1.17 percent in the prior three months, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.

The decline is significant because of its timing. Delinquency rates usually rise in the third quarter from the prior period as people spend on summer vacations and back-to-school shopping, said Clifton O'Neal, a TransUnion spokesman.

The latest quarter marks the first time in a decade the delinquency rate dropped in the third quarter from the preceding quarter, according to the TransUnion analysis.

Then, staring at me from my cozy little Sunday paper, I'm forced to deal with George Will calling environmentalism "the enemy", because it has the nerve to deal with the issue of "scarcity", which, in his mind, is a fabricated concept designed to empower government to control people's freedom to spend, or something. I don't know. The denial is stupefying. He cites shale oil, and Canadian Tar Sands and "huge" discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico
cited by some oil industry hack as proof that there's it's a conspiracy by tree-hugghers to squash our God-given right to consume as much as want for as long as we want. George Will! Millions of people read him, and consider him a voice of rationality in the midst of the left-right vitriol. Man. Oh, man.

JHK says, "...America's leadership has dedicated itself to... a campaign to sustain the unsustainable".

Yes, and what a herculean effort it has been too. Who would have guessed that they could have kept this train wreck on the tracks this long? They have managed to sustain energy consumption commensurate with production.

OK, we figured out a long time ago that the public policy is pedal to the metal until we hit the wall. There will be no effort to mitigate the die-off. Duh!

So, the sooner the collapse occurs, the better. The longer that we wait, the worse will be the suffering.

Perhaps, it is time to quit yammering about the myths of mitigation and preparation. It may be time to begin to assist with getting on with the collapse.

I feel like the coyote; only difference is that I have taken the fall, been hit by the anvil and am now walking around the bottom of the canyon looking like an accordion....
....I seems like the rest of the nation is catching up to me.....

But they are still out shopping!?!

I don't get it. Where is the money coming from? more importantly, where is the CREDIT coming from??

I listen to the self serve scanners at the stores as other people use them, and so often at the grocery store you hear the machine say "Use pin pad to complete transaction, select CREDIT on the pin pad and follow the instructions...."

I think to myself "Credit?" not "Debit" ?? At a GROCERY store... and it's the same thing at any of the Big box stores......

Then I realize that the economy has no real green shoots at all and the consumer "confidence" that is coming "back" is just the last of the desperate maxing out their cards.....

Great post Jim!

NEW YORK — Consumers got more serious about paying down their credit card debt this summer, a time when deliquencies usually go up.

My take: Just freeing up some of their credit line so they can max the card(s) out again come the Christmas shopping season.

Just prior to the 60 Minutes conflab last night the evening news ( I know, the corporate news) talked about Thanksgiving Holiday travel this year.

Travel by Air down 4%, people are fed up with the airlines treatment. They are toast!

Travel by Rail and Commuter train up 2%.

Travel by Car up 2%.

But the thing that struck me was that people are surely unemployed or under employed were bound and determined to travel. I know our society has spread out across our great nation, but this is one example of how people are going to stick to old routines no matter the current situation.

I still maintain, it will take a major calamity to shock our society awake so the change can begin. I think a little oil shortage might just do it.

Continue to watch the Middle East. One burp there and we're out of gas!


Just prior to the 60 Minutes conflab last night the evening news ( I know, the corporate news) talked about Thanksgiving Holiday travel this year.

Travel by Air down 4%, people are fed up with the airlines treatment. They are toast!

Travel by Rail and Commuter train up 2%.

Travel by Car up 2%.

But the thing that struck me was that people are surely unemployed or under employed were bound and determined to travel. I know our society has spread out across our great nation, but this is one example of how people are going to stick to old routines no matter the current situation.

I still maintain, it will take a major calamity to shock our society awake so the change can begin. I think a little oil shortage might just do it.

Continue to watch the Middle East. One burp there and we're out of gas!


RE: George Will

"The men the American public admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth." --H. L. Mencken

Suburban,

We have to select "Credit" when we use our debit card but the transactions are most certainly paid from our checking account.

Now today the O-Man started talking about jobs creation. While at the same time it's starting to sink in that if we ramp up Afganistan then there will not be enough money health care, jobs creation, renewable energy, and the myriad of other things that need attention.

Maybe the O-Man can ask Wall Street to float him a loan!

Now today the O-Man started talking about jobs creation. While at the same time it's starting to sink in that if we ramp up Afganistan then there will not be enough money health care, jobs creation, renewable energy, and the myriad of other things that need attention.

Maybe the O-Man can ask Wall Street to float him a loan!

Thank you!
------------------

Reply to Montana Joe from JHK--
I'm banning you, not because you're out-of-line in terms of manners, but because I regard your conspiracy theories as fucking paranoid nonsense. Take your complaints to another site.

--Jim

Thank you again!
--------------------

Jaego Scorzne--
You're banned too.
I am not retailing malicious racism on this site and don't want to hear from you anymore.
--Jim

Is it an echo or a bunco?:

"Hitler was the greatest performer in Europe. Nobody else could have held an advanced nation in thrall with unscripted, unedited public speeches. He had to be on all the time. But now, with multimedia technology, somebody with much less skill can have the same effect.

Also, Hitler's great talent was feedback. He was not a sociopath, but an evil empath, who could literally resonate with the worst emotions of his audience, and learned exactly how to talk and move to amplify those emotions.

The same thing is happening now with TV and the internet, and not just on the level of emotions, but on the level of facts. Less and less of the content is derived from looking outward, exploring, investigating, and more and more is derived from feeding back what the audience wants."

www.ranprieur.com

I have come to the same conclusion many times that we are indeed a nation of whiny spoiled children. I have asked myself almost on a daily basis why that is. And perhaps what we can do about it?

Could it be our government leaders, who are the problem? Looking back in history many different governents have been established. Many have tried to invision the perfect government. It is my belief that there is no perfect governent. And there, also, is no utopian society. The only way we have to create change is simple: Petition the Governent, Free Speech, and Assemble Peacefully. That is, of course, if we are to abide by the laws of the governing system we live in today. If these options are not acceptable then we must be prepared to fight. However, I am simply stating that since no governent is perfect then fighting could be another giant waste of time and energy. We all will have to function within some type of governing system - as imperfect as it may be. Our choices and visions of the future are controlled by:1) history and 2) physical limitations of the environment we live in i.e. Laws of Physics, ect. In other words, what happened and what is already here? History will tell us that we have unlimited desires in a world of limited resources.

Perhaps what we are really talking about are ideologies about the nature of human existence. Or at least we should be. Of course those discusions can be dicey to say the least. If we are to take a Marxist view then we believe that our lives can not change unless society is radically transformed. However, which one is less energy intensive? Changing the world or changing yourself? Marx belived we shouldn't treat people as means to an economic end...as we might do by refering to "Humans" as "Consumers". If the economic basis of society determines everything else about it, perhaps Marx is right that Capitalism will fall to Communisim. One thing seems certain: man will push his earning capabablies as far as they will go. But if there are limits on human production then certainly future production must fall.

Your situation reminds me of why I continue to cling to the cores of large cities rather than head for a small rural town.

I believe that Kunstler is correct in his prediction that small towns will once more be important in the post-peak oil age, but in the meantime, these places are absolutely untenable and function like really remote suburbs. I have friends who live in a lovely hamlet in the Champagne-Urbana area. They have a beautiful 1930s-vintage Georgetown Colonial, truly elegant, that would cost $450K minimum even now were it in Chicago or nearby. Out there, it might sell for $75K these days, and there's a reason for that.

Why? Even though this is a sweet town and is on an Amtrak rail stop, it is unlivable without a car. There is a shriveled retail district close to the tracks, but it has nothing that offers day-to-day necessities. You must drive 5- 25 miles for food and groceries and basic clothes. At least it is on the grid and is an attractive place with good, brick housing stock, and it's relatively close to the University. But it has no jobs- you'd have to drive to champagne, a good 25 miles away, to go to work.

And while a place like this might be just the place to be 15 years from now, you have to deal with reality as it is at this moment, which means you live where the jobs are and where the buses and trains run and where you can live in a walkable neighborhood with all your daily needs within a few blocks, and your job within easy commuting distance by public transit. If I had the additional money available to park, I might "bank" one of those lovely townhomes, and have my mother live in it while I work here. But that is not an option for me or most other people.

Worse, many small towns are so busy pretending to be suburbs that they are politically refractory to making the adjustments necessary to live with more independently with lower energy consumption. For example, most will not permit you to keep any kind of livestock in residential neighborhoods, nor permit you to run any sort of "cottage industry" out of your house. You are usually discouraged from putting in a vegetable garden, and these places that are surrounded by large farms do not usually even have farmers' markets.

I visited the Saratoga National Historical Park this weekend with the intention of purchasing some birthday and Christmas gifts for nephews and nieces. Many of the gifts that I looked at were "Made in China." I had to pass the old, broken down factory known as Victory Mills to get to the park.

That mill made things as far back as the civil war and provided employment for many people in Victory, Schuylerville and the surrounding area. I believe it was a functioning mill of some sort into the 1980's. It is now an eyesore with broken windows and weeds in the parking lot.

We need to bring back "Made in the U.S.A."

http://teddersrandomnotes.com/blog

I visited the Saratoga National Historical Park this weekend with the intention of purchasing some birthday and Christmas gifts for nephews and nieces. Many of the gifts that I looked at were "Made in China." I had to pass the old, broken down factory known as Victory Mills to get to the park.

That mill made things as far back as the civil war and provided employment for many people in Victory, Schuylerville and the surrounding area. I believe it was a functioning mill of some sort into the 1980's. It is now an eyesore with broken windows and weeds in the parking lot.

We need to bring back "Made in the U.S.A."

http://teddersrandomnotes.com/blog

Chris,
Jim does have his blind spots (as we all do) and also does have the right to ban anyone who comments on his site.

You must realize, from your experience with other people, that many people are highly resistant to the idea that our government institutions, at any level, including rogue elements, could be involved in such a heinous event as 911.

This idea is too disturbing to contemplate for the typical American and rightly so.

Those in power in this country understand this psychology well, and utilize it to further their agendas.

In this case they have put together a plausible case (in a neat package) for their chosen story of how this occurred.

Psychologically, the easiest answer for the typical American is to accept this story and get back to the business of watching reality TV, football, go shopping or attend whatever else they feel is important at the moment.

So ends their cognitive dissonance on this matter.

If they refuse to hear any more about the matter, then they keep their cognitive dissonance at a minimum and can feel like everything is fine, at least as far as this question goes.

If they have a heightened reaction to a comment about the matter at a later time, it gives evidence that they still have some cognitive dissonance that can’t be eliminated by simply ignoring it.

The stronger the reaction, the stronger the cognitive dissonace.

This same basic psychological effect is occurring with the economic catastrophe we are living through, as well as, the possibility of drastic changes to the typical American lifestyle as a result of Peak Oil.

People are experiencing tremendous cognitive dissonance on many levels concerning this economic paradigm shift that is occurring.

They can barely grasp the basic everyday financial problems that are occurring in their lives, much less the possibility that there were/are people who, get ready, I’m going to use the ‘C’ word, conspired (think of this as created an agenda) to deliberately create much of what’s now occurring.

As in the unmentionable example above, the government has and will continue to offer a plausible case for why the problems have happened and this case will inevitably be accepted by the average American.


Although in this case, since no Americans were killed by the event (at least not directly), there is more room for folks to put some blame on the government without the extremely heightened cognitive dissonance that occurs at the thought of some aspect of the government being involved in the unmentionable incident above.

The nine most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government and I’m here to help you.”
-- Ronald Reagan

James, I think you may not be taking the words of Paul Krugman as I have taken them. I do believe he is saying what you are saying, to some degree.

You say, "...our destination is the same: the absolute necessity to reorganize how we live." "...the urgent task of making new arrangements for trade, food production, et cetera - the very things that would provide jobs and social roles for our citizens in the future."

Yes, I agree, and I believe that is why we need a more powerful and focused government stimulus. One that does not continue to recapitalize greedy bankstas. Krugman agrees with this point.

"Historic circumstances are requiring us to change our behavior, to make new arrangements for everyday life in all the major particulars: capital accumulation and deployment; food production; commerce; habitation; transport; education; and health care. These new arrangements must be organized at a smaller and finer scale, and on a much more local basis."

In order to do as you suggest, James, we need capital to do. The government must STOP handing out capital to the bankstas and allow a bigger stimulus to reform what should be a new way of life, whereby we bring our economies local, and regional and national. I believe Krugman agrees, too. New renewable energy manufacturing must be made by us and not by China here in the US. This takes stimulus money. But Obama needs to take the capital off of the bankstas, off of the tax avoiders off shore, tariff products produced by countries that undervalue their currencies, etc.

James, please write about your solutions and how to achieve them.

http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com

I'm totally ok with global rule.....as long as I get to run things.

After perusing the comments, I find some off topic, and would have liked to have read comments that addressed the subject this week.

One writer, Laura Louzander, struck my curiosity, which brought me back to this comment window.

One thing is very important in this new paradigm that James continues to write so eloquently about week after week, and that is the continuous destruction of the small farmer-local farm, instead of toxic industrial agribusiness, and the continuous expansion of the mega-grocery and mega-box stores, instead of the small, personal, family owned stores, services, and providers that had once filled our Main Streets all over America. This is what is seriously wrong with this country and really Must Be Stopped, but unfortunately it won't be since the corporate oligarchs control government.

What would be sustainable from Saratoga Springs to Pittsburgh, PA would be hometown business and manufacturing and not conglomerates and oversized mega stores.

We here are all the dreamers and actually the thinkers and innovators. We are the believers in Obama's campaign slogan of Change We Can Believe In. It is so sad for us all that Obama does not believe in his own words, or his slogans, or his own commitments, and passions. He is a weak failure. A sell-out.

This nation could become sustainable if we all here were in charge.

http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com

I'm ok with not understanding how & why.....as long as I know where & when.

ooops - I see you've been banned.....

Excellent JHK. Every single f*****g word rings true to me. Also at the same time I appreciate montana joes input. Even tho him and JHK seem to not see eye to eye.

Both are correct IMHO.

I want to ask Don't Worry Be Happy to name some links please. I am interested.

Plant trees, food, love people, not things.

I felt this coming about 20 years ago. "They took all they could get here, and are going to move on soon, we will be a 3rd world country" I said to a friend.

It was and is my feeling and experience of life here is CA / US over 50 years now. "they are going to rape some other land now", take advantage of the 'poor' people, and then move on again. It sucks. But there are SO many people where things matter more than people/life itself.

Between them and the ones who don't care enough about anything, it ain't lookin' too good.

oh and I too HATE human beings dying for our country to be referred to as TROOPS. for the longest time i thought there were so many in a 'troop'. Like F troop. Another misleading, intentionally, word.
I am learning to read and see the truth in the way things are misworded, on the news. so much bullshit. many of the idiots reading it on TV probably are clueless or actually believe it themselves. "they'll tell you all the bad news with a gleam in there eyes"
Don henley. pretty little bleach blonde with a gleam in her eyey. whatever. I was a bleach blonde once. but you get the pic.

the first words baby lears in 'more.' Gimme What You Got i want it i want it, and also The Last Resort by Don Henley. He gets it.

ok done. I doubt many of you made it this far reading my rant. I try. Laura L rocks also.

need some links DWBHappy. Thanks.


Sometimes groups (i.e. the government) get so big that they take on a life of their own. Generally speaking groups have the bond of a common goal. This goal can become easily corrupted if group members are preemptively rewarded for future choices. Sadly, our own political system has become corrupted by preemptive rewards, and they are not coming from the average American, but from corporate America. The aforementioned state of the political system calls for a new common goal. Sadly, I fear that the new common goal is likely to be: keep the system going, at all costs, in order to stay in power/get paid.

I recently began work for a government agency (federal), and during the first day of "training" we spent over an hour going over how to fill out a fairly simple timesheet. This was our first lesson, and the instructor verbally noted that this was the most important part of the training and the job, because "everyone wants to be paid". I found it very telling that the training script was geared towards, first and foremost, how to get paid. But, I also found the script to be offensive in supposing that I was not dedicated to the cause unless I was paid first. The supposition that I was there only to make money seemed to undermine what should be the goal of the government agency. After all if I was there only to make money, I would have taken a higher paying job a long time ago.

My point is that if our own government is starting paid training with a time consuming introduction to the time sheet, based on the premis that everyone first and foremost wants to make money, then they have demonstrated a strong acknowledgement of greediness in Americans. There is no way that I would agree to do this job if I did not believe that I was doing the best work that I could, and in such contributing to the validity of the stastical outcome.

All of this leads me to two seemingly contridictary points.

1. There are too many American citizens to be adequately represented by one national government.

2. There are too many citizens involed in our national government to result in an efficient process.

Nailed it! Jim manages to put into eloquent words the state we are in every time, what a drag I won't be able to get his slant on reality when the real do-do hits the fan - I expect communications to be severely effected.

However, I do occasionally disagree with a point or two, without which I'd probably remain a mute reader. The only issue I have with today's piece is that "capitalism", as in surplus wealth, will remain after peak oil hits with a veangence. I don't see surplus wealth beyond a small surplus in crop yeilds from whatever small farming base is left. Much of the farming infrastructure will be crippled in the collapse and even small farm lots will come under serious pressure from starving looters, some armed to the teeth. I hope not, but hope doesn't fill an empty stomach.

I am hoping for that too. I think many smart ones will homestead now. I get farm eggs from the Amish and deliver them to Springfield MO to a beautiful restaurant that is an English pub and serves local food. I am trying to get more produce and restaurants to do this.

Often art is the only thing that enriches us when things are going down. And those who make documentaries are reaching people words don't touch at all.

Besides letting your kid go to film school is an authoritarian mindset. By the time your kids are going to college they should have been making their own decisions for years and years. But I can see yours do not with an authoritarian like you in the house.

Authoritarian mentalities choose fascism as the political manifestation of their choices and perceptions. You need to read Altemeyer's The Authoritarians to find out what you are really all about.

Letting my foot!

I know I posted this link last week, but here it is again:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

And here's an excerpt:

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

Yup, the Powers That Be have been trying to keep the oil supply forecast artificially rosy. And even that facade is beginning to crack.

-----

I'm kind of sorry to see Jaego banned... for a white supremacist (really more of a separatist) he was pretty open-minded. But, it's JHK's blog, thus it's JHK's call.

I know I posted this link last week, but here it is again:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

And here's an excerpt:

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

Yup, the Powers That Be have been trying to keep the oil supply forecast artificially rosy. And even that facade is beginning to crack.

-----

I'm kind of sorry to see Jaego banned... for a white supremacist (really more of a separatist) he was pretty open-minded. But, it's JHK's blog, thus it's JHK's call.

Sorry about the double-post, but I hit error #500 and hit refresh.

-----

Not sorry at all to see the 9-11 conspiracy nut banned... anyone who thinks steel doesn't weaken at 1500 degrees Fahrenheit has never done any welding.

On studying Foucault here is my take on 9-11.

The Commission Report states the official discourse (framing) of those events. It is necessary for them to get it out fast so that the Official serious Discourse takes precedence over anything else said about it. This forces all other additional opinions and facts to the periphery. It makes them outsider facts or opinions.

Out of the mainstream. This forces the discourse to be confined to the official word. It's very clever. Get it. It occurs in every fucking field and discipline. And it can be analyzed using Foucault's method of genealogy. Right now I am at the part of Abnormal and tracing how that came into being fusing with criminology.

All this Serious Discourse is politically required. The State is not about humanity, seeing that its citizens are healthy, well fed, receiving medical care and education, etc. Ane there is no conspiracy making that happen. The system is faceless which makes it all the worse for us. Ever increasing surveillance combines with power in a way that entangles every living person in the State. There is no escape.

Allowing 9-11 to happen was pure stupidity at best and something else at the worse. The Lusitania, the Maine, Pearl Harbor were all taken advantage of if not aided and abetted. Then they must move fast to proclaim the Official Discourse about it.

Right now who cares a fig about whether Pearl Harbor was planned? Or the Lusitania deliberately carrying passengers and arms to create an uprising of anti-isolationism if sunk, or that the Maine was not blown up by Spain but by an independent anarchist. The truth is out. Can anyone hear? Who cares anyway?

And the JFK assassination? They are still at it but the Official Discourse was the Warren Commission and does Norman Mailer ever debunk it with his insightful intelligence and wit.

No it isn't. The dollar is down that much. See how they manipulate your thinking with double-speak.

It is because we have become Objects and are no longer individual humans with desires, sorrows, etc. We are objects. We are under constant surveillance. And we are controlled.

Actually it is not sappiness. Because a dog or animal is afraid and bites it is taken personally by the rescue organization and the animal is killed. There is no attempt to understand why it did what it id when it did.

This behavior is indicative of a deeply ingrained cultural response to aggressive behavior from some object (read people in there too folks)that leads to kill!

Geo Bush anyone!

People are upset that the rabbit is being killed for no real reason. What they don't understand clearly that that behavior needs to be resisted at all levels. So you will get people trying to protect Copper that were all ra-ra about bombing Iraq.

Yeh. I think you hook it to the electric meter to get it to run backwards and so you sell electricity to the electric company. All legal.

On grinding I guess you will have to figure it out. It shouldn't be too hard.

No. The reason the TV is mindless is that it keeps mindless people occupied. As long as they are in front of it they are under a surveillance of sorts. Then you can sell them what yu want to sell. You can manipulate their minds the way you want to.

The fact that you watched, and then ranted about it means they gotcha!

Read David Foster Wallace's essay on TV. I think it's in A Supposedly Fun Thing I'll Never Do Again which is also a wonderful essay about taking a cruise.

I believe if there is an upside to our time, it is the Internet. Now it's possible to avoid the childish and inept corporate controlled media, there are web sites like this one, where issues actually get thought about before they're discussed.

This is something that wasn't there when I was a kid, you just had the three networks doing the same news stories, all in the same monotonous way.

I see you have been reading Plato. Or reinventing the wheel.

Do not pick up a hoe. do this instead.

About now find a oad of hay, straw, or grass clippings that you can get free or cheap. Set aside a place for your garden (your lawn or whatever) and put down in thick compressed bundles. Donot shake out your bales all fluffy but break them like books about a few inches thick. Then lay them like bricks close together. Then forget about them until the spring. (If you want you can lay a cold frame down and plant early.) You make a cold frame out of say an old shower door placed on 2x4's or some such kind of found frame.

In the spring you just dig a little hole down through the bale and dirt and plant your seedling. You have already started the seeds in little pots in February. Any big seeds (beans, limas, corn etc) you plant directly. Plant the corn and tomatoes close. As you pick your corn your tomatoes will be getting higher so you tie them to the cor stalks since they are already there.

You go to yard sales and buy those see through curtains little old ladies use for their windows. You apread these over your lettuce, beans etc so the bugs can't get in but the sun and rain will. Whenever you see some weeds just put another chunk of bale on them. You can water when you plant but shouldn't have to do much unless there is a fierce drought. Sit in your hammock and drink lemonade. But do go see it everyday and talk to it and let it know you love it. Your garden that is. If you want birds then rig a cassette tape of Vivaldi to play out there. Birds like Vivaldi best. They will eat your bugs. Oh and cover your tomato plants with those curtains so the moths can't lay eggs that turn into worms. Unless you have chickens and in that case let them lay the worms so you can pick them off for your chickens. A chicken will kill for a tomato worm.

I got all this from one year doing one acre all by myself reading Organic Gardening and Mother Earth. Buy them on ebay (old issues) for cheap info.

Look he was tolerant for a long long time and he pays the bills here. I do agree with Bernard-Henri Levy and Houellebecq that tolerance is our worst enemy. These people take 9-11 into imaginary territory. Just allowing it to happen is quite enough for damage. Or being too stupid to listen to advice about the coming danger. Or whatever.

The folds in charge during 9-11 had the same mentality that all -yes I said all- the police, officers, probation grunts, parole people had about Garrido allowing Jaycee Dugard to be a prisoner in a back yard living in tents that were visible on google for almost 20 fucking years.

Then we have the guy at Fort Hood who waved a lot of red flags, and people who saw them and properly noted them, but no one could take charge and act.

It is all the same mentality. No one can connect dots in this dumbed down country because the TV hasn't taught them how to do it yet. Lots of luck on that.

Just my way of saying that no one needs to posit a conspiracy theory when it is not necessary. Occam's Razor you know.

Well those dudes were dumb. Don't pay them. Then they will offer you about half of your debt to pay off and call it quits. Don't pay. Then they will offer you a third or just below $600 (where you get socked by IRS as income) and then you can decide whether to pay or not.

Ayn Rand has one dynamite concept. The Sanction of the Victim.

Nope. Just go into the bank and play some poker with them. Be ready to give them the keys if they won't play. Then you can get a lawyer to buy it back for 10 cents on the dollar for you.

The Serious Discourse must be changed. Read Foucault.

But he thought it was too late. But he advocated pessimistic activism.

Very nice. And what you have said is that the Official Discourse is such and such. This is the purpose of it. It excludes everything else. and it was first so everything has to be a critical reply to it.

The Commission Report sucks. So many stupid questions from stupid congress critters.

Bacon: a question well asked is half the answer.

I agree with you. Better to learn how to forage for food. Then you can teach the looters.

OK, we are going back to the situation where kids will have to decide about careers, in the sense of: "do I want to be plumber, or would I rather learn how to make chairs and tables out of recycled wood?" Sorry Lynn, film school will not be an option.

It was a great 50-year high, while it lasted. It's over, and we have to grow up now.

Thanks for the bannings. Your site, your choice. Now would you please ban those who write in shorthand jibberish and make no sense whatsoever? Perhaps in their fractured, chaotic minds they are witty and relevant, but not so.

Keep up the great work. You articulate what I feel in my bones. I've given your books to many family members as gifts and look forward to Mondays.

Laura, I think what's going to happen is when more jobs disappear there will be a lot of doubling up. As older country people whose investments tank need housemates in the small towns and villages, and food distribution problems make gardening more urgent, there will be places for city people to go, to live and to help do the work. I know it won't be all so orderly, (looting, etc.) But where we are, in rough land with small villages, and aging boomers, we're looking at ways to actively encourage younger people to come out.

Food will be the new currency; more edible than gold.

What Mr. K. says in this article is correct, but it will take time for people to figure out that things have changed, especially the upper middle class employed sector. Those who were laid off from good paying jobs and now are either unemployed or working at 1/4 their previous income, will have a shorter ride to the truth.

I look for symbols in my daily travels. This morning, I went to the supermarket and stood in line behind a woman who bought about 150.00 worth of Thanksgiving fixings, and she brought ten canvas bags (the no paper or plastic bags) and waited patiently while the cashier loaded the food into them, then into two carts. When I walked into the parking lot, the woman was loading the canvas bags into a giant GMC SUV that looked brand new.

What is going to happen is that the rich are going to have what they've always had: the financial daily horsepower to take care of their needs, and the ability to pay helpers to deliver to their homes, take their kids to school, all of that. When I was growing up decades ago, I remember my friend's dad was THE big Ford dealer in town. They lived in the country in a stone mansion, and everything they needed was delivered, and the family had two top of the line Fords---Thunderbirds and sedans---that were always polished, always at the ready. This is what we will see more and more of---while most of us who don't make $1000/hr---will be dramatically downsizing in all respects. We're on the way back to the 1920's.

What Mr. K. says in this article is correct, but it will take time for people to figure out that things have changed, especially the upper middle class employed sector. Those who were laid off from good paying jobs and now are either unemployed or working at 1/4 their previous income, will have a shorter ride to the truth.

I look for symbols in my daily travels. This morning, I went to the supermarket and stood in line behind a woman who bought about 150.00 worth of Thanksgiving fixings, and she brought ten canvas bags (the no paper or plastic bags) and waited patiently while the cashier loaded the food into them, then into two carts. When I walked into the parking lot, the woman was loading the canvas bags into a giant GMC SUV that looked brand new.

What is going to happen is that the rich are going to have what they've always had, and the other 99% will see their standard of living drop dramatically. We will have Cuba adjacent to Dubai in the US.

Agribiz,
I can't speak to your specific circumstances, of course, but I have noted a number of trends which would auger well for having a couple of acres of good farm land, not just in the future, but now.

Locally, I have seen at Saturday markets an increasing number of "urban farms" selling their produce. When you visit there locations it's often no more than a city lot where the front and back yards have been converted to a garden.

Often these little enterprises do well by offering either better quality than the markets or heirloom veggies which can't be had there. Others exist which grow a higher, fresher quality and sell it to local restaurants.

I'm just saying, there are niches out there, I wish I had a little land like you do, I have to make due by growing my garden on a deck.

CynicalOne said: "My take: Just freeing up some of their credit line so they can max the card(s) out again come the Christmas shopping season."

First point: Even if that were the case, this is an indication of people acting rationally (not "infantile" behavior as claimed in this week's post)

Second point: This is the first year in ten years that this behavior of paying down debt has been observed. Why didn't people act this way last year, or the year before, since their credit cards were maxed out then, also.

My point is that the American people are not as they are being portrayed in this week's post. They are not mindless, moronic, pleasure-seeking beings who are incapable of reacting rationally in an autonomous fashion to improve their economic situation.

More evidence: Today's personal savings rate of 3 percent is nearly double that of a year ago. Economists say it could rise as high as 8 percent as households try to rebuild savings shredded by the recession.

This behavior is not the behavior of a public which JHK this week calls "infantile." It is a rational response to economic convulsion.

Give the American people some credit for the leadership they are exhibiting in their own lives. They are not all "sheeple" or "consumers" who are hypnotized by main stream media advertising to go out and spend, spend, spend on crap.

I reject the premise that Americans are moronic idiots or that "we are seeing a comprehensive failure of leadership in every sector and every level of American life."

Americans are saving and they are paying down debt, which is exactly what many here on CFN have been advocating for years.

Niche, schmiche. There ARE farmers markets in the small and medium sized towns. There IS a considerable amount of direct marketing of livestock and produce. What there ISN'T is enough of a market for anybody to make the sort of living it takes to support living remotely through selling into it. There is no local base of consumers. Most able bodied folks who have a lot or access to one have their own gardens, but nobody grows enough to totally survive on and there isn't any money made in folks selling like products to each other.

As a life long LaFollette progressive I have come to the conclusion that the single greatest threat to our future is mindless and naive psuedoprogressives who know all of the buzz topics..sustainablilty, niche, green, act locally.... who think that good intentions and purified nobility alone is going to save anything and wouldn't recognize a regressive situation if it hit them in the face. And, however, no matter how feeble they continue to be as long as we can hold together our system of democraticly electing our represntatives in government these know-nothing do gooders will continue to win elections and represent us. And WILL, sadly,remain a better alternative to the fascist tribalists who have taken full control of the current minority party. Barack Obama, for christ's sake elected as the consumate progressive idealist, rolled over and became a shill for regressive powers the second he was faced with the reality of who had the money and , moreso, upon finding out what they were doing with it, and even moreso, what they were prepared to do if they were to be asked to reform in any way.

We need a participatory economy wherein people compensate each other for making, growing and doing things for each other, with those exchanges coming with margins. Margins to be perpetually backfilled by either growth or efficiencies. If we can't do that, and we surely can't by the effete simply giving the impovrished mystical and rose tinted advice, then we need as competent management of the ensuing decline and chaos as will be possible.

I don't know why all you Kunstler sycophants keep encouraging him with all your "Oh Jim! You are soooooo smart and this should be required reading...." BS. Kunstler writes the same damn post every week. It never really changes. You could cut and paste from all his previous posts and come up with the same thing (although he didn't mention tattoos this time). How can K even declare we have "reached" peak oil when he has no clue how much more oil is out there? Even if you agree with much of what he says, there is no way to know how much more oil is to be found. Anyhow, waste-to-energy will be a good alternative; it makes no sense to dispose of combustible material.

And why on earth should commercial media be excoriated for doing what they do best? They have to move product through advertising. Why would you expect rational discourse on TV when they need to maintain viewership? Sex and blood and sex and blood together. That's what works. And Globalization is not a choice, it's a reality. K's wish for some "localized" utopia is only that, a wish. Like he says, we can't go back; to horse & buggy and railroad suburbs. Those things had their day and it's over.

Mr. Kunstler,

I note that over the past 6 months or so that I have been reading your essays and commenting, you have come out of the woodwork maybe 2 or 3 times to ban someone or give them a rap on the knuckles. Yesterday Montana Joe got the heave ho and I must say all these kinds of grand conspiracy theories drive me wild too.

In your next breath you banned Jaego Scorzne. This has me somewhat baffled since Jaego has been the most prolific commentor at this site for at least six months. Surely his word-count is double any other. He has been relentlessly racist, fascist, and anti-semitic. All of a sudden you ban him. I can't help but wonder what comment was the final straw. I went back and re-read his final comment under the Yeast People essay and each of his comments yesterday relative to your Convulsion essay. Frankly, I can't detect the tipping point.

If you are so disposed, and I suspect you are not, I would be interested to know your M.O. What are the criteria for banishment.

BTW, taking ZZZZZZ (aka: OEO, etc.) or Johnny Rico as models, we can probably expect Jaego to re-appear shortly under a new name. What then?

George, I am recommending that Jim Kunstler ban you if you use the words "cognitive dissonance" one more frickin time.

Thanks to all who post here, well mostly all, there are a few exceptions and you know who you are.
kidding.
Intelligent people who actually THINK and CARE
and SHARE.

antimatter nailed it. yep. I read this years ago.
and now I do SEE it happening. I've been reading all my life.
The many delivering goods to the few on their hills.
It's already here.
It's a trip all right. Not such a good one tho.
Well the adjustment will be rough and it may be worse than even Kunstler thinks. or not.
We have to get *back* to more realistic ways of living.

Kunstler Rocks in my book. Even if he doesn't believe in 911 Conspiricy Theories. I kinda do, it points in that direction for sure.

the holidays are here ready or not here goes nothin'

Melinda, I don't get it ... what is the problem with the word "troops."?

From the Dictionary: troops, a body of soldiers, police, etc.

Thanks to all who post here, well mostly all, there are a few exceptions and you know who you are.
kidding.
Intelligent people who actually THINK and CARE
and SHARE.

antimatter nailed it. yep. I read this years ago.
and now I do SEE it happening. I've been reading all my life.
The many delivering goods to the few on their hills.
It's already here.
It's a trip all right. Not such a good one tho.
Well the adjustment will be rough and it may be worse than even Kunstler thinks. or not.
We have to get *back* to more realistic ways of living.

the holidays are here ready or not here goes nothin'

thanks, and / but when on the news 'they' say how many troops were killed it refers to like 4,000+ individuals.

oh well maybe a gray area.
I am learning how to think better, I think.

and JHK I will use better manners. Like stop swearing even with ***.

Thank You for allowing me on here.

thanks, and / but when on the news 'they' say how many troops were killed it refers to like 4,000+ individuals. It seems so Impersonal and these kids died for *us.* that's what I mean.

oh well maybe a gray area.
I am learning how to think better, I think.

and JHK I will use better manners. Like stop swearing even with ***.

Thank You for allowing me on here.

>Why is the flip side of the peak oil
>coin some kind on bleak every one for
>himself disaster movie? Do we only have
>one ending?

Anything is possible. Given what we know about history and collapsing empires, what is probable is another matter.

I think people are nervous and pessimistic because they can see this huge inertial system moving in slow motion toward catastrophic disintegration. Some people want to accelerate out of the situation, others want to hit the brakes. A lot of us want to risk jumping out before the crash. But the thing is, and is probably beyond controversy, is that we are all together in a big rolling crisis, that no one seems to know how to stop, except maybe by hitting something unmovable. When something big and heavy hits the wall, no matter how optimistic you are, the fact is someone's gonna get hurt, maybe even the optimists.

But who knows, maybe SuperObamaMan or Space Aliens with take the wheel at the last second and save us all.

Could happen.

No truer words were ever spoken than your reminder that we are all INDIVIDUALS, and that if we cannot afford something as individuals we cannot afford it as a "collective".

Our political system and both parties have lost their legitimacy, and our country more and more resembles Weimar Germany in its chaos and violence and insanity, because, just like the major political parties of Pre-Hitler Germany, our two political parties offer us only two different varieties of irrationality and collectivism-. You can choose either the nationalistic, corporate-welfare-state collectivism of the right with its emphasis on "tradition" and fundamentalist Christianity, or the welfare-statism and pandering to our enemies, of the left. Somehow, it isn't strange that the two wings look more like each other all the time.

"But it's sure interesting to know that the ones palavering with Mr. Krugman imagine that that the US can possibly return to an economy based on the fraudulent securitization of reckless debt. "

Dear James... You have a typo in the above paragraph: "that that"

Oh come on! It's funny when you think about it... a despairing rant on TEOWAWKI and someone points out a typo! How more absurd can you get? Well... don't answer that. All this will pass. And we'll either survive it or we won't. End of our sad little story. Man plans. God laughs. or something like that...

Boris, I find the gist of your comment about time card training to be highly annoying and I'll tell you why. I have vast experience on the importance of proper labor recording and the importance of paying employees accurately and on time. I spent 3 years in the early 1960s as an Accounting and Finance Officer at Duluth AFB, Minn. Among the many financial functions of that position there was NONE more important than paying the troops (see earlier comment re the term "troops") on time. Shortly after assuming this position as a 2nd Lt., fresh out of college, my new boss, Col Sanders (yes, believe it or not that was his name), warned me of the utter chaos that can ensue if the payroll is not ready on payday. This was at a time when most troops were paid in cash. As we began to shift to payment by check it was no different. God forbid pay was not received on time.

Later, in my civilian career I worked for a defense contractor for 26 years, the last 10 of which were in the area of "Government Compliance." I can't think of an area of compliance with government procurement regulations that gets more emphasis than the proper recording of time. i.e. the time sheet. They want to know how many hours and on which projects. This is true not only for civilian employees doing work for a govt customer but also for the government employees themselves such as the DCAA auditors with whom I interfaced. The reason is that there is an almost insane misperception on the part of the public that defense contractors and the govt itself is rife with fraud ... a total exaggeration. (Note to Asoka: please refrain from your usual negative comments on this subject. Your mindset has been duely noted on several previous occasions.)

And so, the first thing your new govt employer wants to take care of is that you record your time accurately so that there is zero possibility that your pay won't be there on your first and all subsequent paydays. If you are a "Direct" labor empl you have to record time daily. "Indirect" labor employees may record weekly. Imagine how you would feel if you were unemployed for six months and then landed a job with the govt and the first pay day rolled around and there was no check for you and they blithely said "Oh yeah, there was some screw-up with your time card but don't worry about it, they'll straighten it out and eventually you'll be paid."

Your desire to get on with the actual work you were hired for is admirable but I can assure you, getting paid is #1 on just about everybody's list.

thanks, and / but when on the news 'they' say how many troops were killed it refers to like 4,000+ individuals. It seems so Impersonal and these kids died for *us.* that's what I mean.

oh well maybe a gray area.
I am learning how to think better, I think.

and JHK I will use better manners. Like stop swearing even with ***.

Thank You for allowing me on here.

"It is either insanity or it is a lie." FeeFee

I'll take INSANITY for $1 TRILLION! No, make that $10 TRILLION!! No, wait, make it $100 TRILLION!!!
Oh hell, I'll go to a Gadzillion!!

Whats the daffynision of Insanity again:
Oh, thats right, keep repeating the same thing and hoping for a different outcome each time....

So, Fee Fee, not insulting every one, are you back on your meds now?

'We are BANKRUPT. We could not afford healthcare before it rolled off the lips of a single candidate'

INDEED! REALITY CHECK......

FEFE...is Obama selling or trying to sell Us banks to the communist chinese?


and thanks jim for what only made page 12? of the times....the gloved ones gloved sold...the king of pop blablabla. me thinks the herd is a bit dumbed down.

'you ain't part of the equation'

you aint part of their equasion....which is why for 100? years the power elites have been working on getting rid of the USA and having a one world govt..look at how rockefeller/gates/ buffet went to china to ' scope things out'.

'Made in the U.S.A'...how can that happen when folks in the 3rd world work for 1 to 10$ a day?

when the multinationals are buying politicians?

even trained workers in chindia work cheaper...programmers are 10$ ? an hour.

is gold selling at 1150 an ounce?

Great article again. I look forward to the days ahead of less consuming and more of doing. As an example, for me personally, there is nothing more pleasing and satisfying than to rebuild/restore an old automobile or bicycle. I am sure their are others of similar persuasion that will fill the gaps when globalism fails. The joy is as much the restoration process as the enjoying the fruits of your labor afterwards.

JHK: Is it true that the Global Warming will sink down all the roads and have us living by the water like the salamanders and the toads?

Abbey said to Chubbz: "Besides letting your kid go to film school is an authoritarian mindset. By the time your kids are going to college they should have been making their own decisions for years and years. But I can see yours do not with an authoritarian like you in the house."
------------------------------

To Chubbz: try to disregard the mean-spirited remark made by Abbey. You see, Abbey likes to imagine she is an authority on EVERYTHING ... including the proper role of parents in the lives of their children ... even though she is 75 years old and childless. She thinks that young adults at college age (that would be approx 18) "should have been making their own decisions for years and years." (This stupid remark makes me think of Christ on the cross where he says "Father forgive them for they know not what they do.") Father forgive Abbey for voicing an opinion about something beyond her personal experience. My own children are 33, 32 and 29 yrs old. They use to resent my advice but now they regularly seek it.

I'm sure your words "let him go to film school" are not to be taken literally. Rather, those are more likely the words you opened with in a discussion with your son as to the future direction of his life, especially since you were probably footing all or some of the bill.

Abbey, honest to God ... you should be ashamed of yourself.

"I'm kind of sorry to see Jaego banned... for a white supremacist (really more of a separatist) he was pretty open-minded. But, it's JHK's blog, thus it's JHK's call."
---------------------------

Don't worry, Jaego will be back under a new name like others before him such as ZZZZZZ and Johnny Rico.

In that regard I was wondering what had become of Zzz and now I see he is back under the name FeeFee. "Fucktard" is the giveaway. Why the new name FeeFee?

StinkEye doesn't believe global warming is real. What a surprise!

Mr.Purple wrote...

"I'm kind of sorry to see Jaego banned..."

I'm not, even tho he will be back under a different name (the sad sack has obviously little else to do but bore everyone here), as a symbolic gesture, I applaud you, Mr. K.

Excellent post, personally, I dismantled my satellite TV system and banished the TV to the spare room where I pick up the four Irish channels with a rabbits ears. About once every 6 weeks I go up there to watch something (usually a sporting event).

I can be selective about my news from the internet and maybe listen to the news on the radio for 20 minutes a day. Sick of being brainwashed.

"I'm kind of sorry to see Jaego banned..."

I'm not, and second (or third, or fourth) the motion.

But I do kinda miss SEB tho, his strain of consciousness ramblings were actually quite entertaining. But of course I can just go over to his blog. And old Jaego probably has his blog too.

Gee, am I the only one without one?

Now we can all stick to the subject about how in the near (or distant) future we will all live like the Amish, and read World Made by Hand by candle lite or whale-oil lanterns.
Well, except for those like DR Doom, who will no doubt have a wind or solar powered laptop on some Mt on Hawaii. Unfortunately, he will just be able to get hours of About:Blank on his web browser.

"Ever increasing surveillance combines with power in a way that entangles every living person in the State. There is no escape."
-----------------------------

To Mr. Kunstler,

I have chosen to quote the above two sentencess simply to demonstrate the mindset of Abbey. The single comment I am replying to is loaded with other examples of paranoid delusions. And I believe she has toned down her wording today due to yesterday's bannings. When she talks about 9/11, Pearl Harbor, the Lusitania, the JFK assassination, etc as though they *MAY* have been the result of grand govt conspiracies ... make no mistake, she believes they *ARE* the result of grand govt conspiracies.

Abbey is Montana Joe in little old lady intellectual clothing and as such is far more dangerous. It is easy for us to spot and dismiss the lunatic strident ravings of a Montana Joe but fail to spot paranoia in an Abbey.

Because I favor free speech I am not suggesting a ban on Abbey but as I've said many times, I will make it my mission to deconstruct bullshit when I see it.

Abbey said to ANOTHERPLAYAGUY: "No it isn't. The dollar is down that much. See how they manipulate your thinking with double-speak."
-----------------------------

Note to ANOTHER... This is another area in which Abbey envisions herself an expert. Abbey believes the US$ and the Markets (of which the DOW is one measure) are always inversely correlated. Actually she doesn't SAY "always," she merely implies it. Fact is, they ARE inversely correlated, EXCEPT when they're not. Like today ... both the $ and DOW are down. Frequently things Abbey says must be taken with a pound of salt.

"We are objects. We are under constant surveillance. And we are controlled."
-------------------------

The paranoia continues.

"Ever increasing surveillance combines with power in a way that entangles every living person in the State. There is no escape."

Yes I am quoted accurately and this is from the work of Michel Foucault. Read his Discipline and Punish for minute and exact details through history. Particularly the Panopticon by Jeremy Bentham summarized as the model.

We have developed and sold to China facial recognition software (Naomi Klein's recent book The Shock Doctrine for intense surveillance of citizens. As Foucault says it is the Plague Model as opposed to the earlier Leper Model of exclusion.

This Is Pearl is a detailed account of our breaking the Japanese code and their messaging concerning Pearl before it happened as recorded and transcribed by the US military. First made aware of this in 1955 or 54 by my university history teacher. And all our major ships were in Pearl Harbor like sitting ducks ordered there by Admirals. More incompetants or was it done on purpose? You decide.

Before War I we were sending military aid to England (as we would do again before War II) and the Germans were attacking our ships. The Lusitania had American passengers aboard as well as military aid when it was sunk. Thus the outcry and the rush into war. The Maine was blamed on Spain (it rhymes SEB)and began the Spanish American War so we could take territories. JFK will probably never be settled as the idiot Arlen Spector (who also let Ira Einhorn go on $40,000 bail) proposed the single bullet theory became the Official Discourse concerning the JFK assassination via the Warren Commission. For a nice deconstruction of the Warren Commission see Norman Mailer's well researched Oswald.

As for 9-11 we know that Bush was warned about Al Quaida and said he didn't want to hear any more about it. And what's his name was no longer invited to sit in on daily briefs to warn him. Again the lack of dot connection of these men taking flying lessons, and their instructors warning in writing about their hot headedness and disinterest in learning to land these planes, only to fly them. Many many dots here just as in the Jaycee Dugard case.

Scott Ritter as one of the heads of the UN team inspecting for WMD in Iraq said in a Springfield MO talk at the University here that they had ot found any. This was on the eve of declaring war.

Deconstruct away O inferior intellectual one.

Within Jaego's theory he was consistent. His failure was in overgeneralizing when he did not have clear facts to do so.

Besides his solution was such a tiny bit of the problem that it won't help.

Daddy Daddy come get this woman out of the way here. She is castrating me with her intellect. Help help, she is dangerous!

"Yeh. I think you hook it to the electric meter to get it to run backwards and so you sell electricity to the electric company. All legal."
---------------------------

Abbey, Jaego likes to see himself as a practicing separatist but I would bet my immortal soul (if I actually had one) that Jaego will never hook a stationary bike to the elec grid, never grind grain, never move to Montana, and never fire a shot at the advancing brown hordes. More delusional thinking that you help to perpetuate. You are two peas in a pod.

As a life long LaFollette progressive I have come to the conclusion that the single greatest threat to our future is mindless and naive psuedoprogressives who know all of the buzz topics..sustainablilty, niche, green, act locally.... who think that good intentions and purified nobility alone is going to save anything and wouldn't recognize a regressive situation if it hit them in the face. And, however, no matter how feeble they continue to be as long as we can hold together our system of democratically electing our representatives in government these know-nothing do gooders will continue to win elections and represent us.

Ah the great La Follette. And in WI when farmers had their farms auctioned off on them their friends came to it and when the farmer bid $1.00 no one would outbid. Now they go to make a killing from someones terrible personal loss and suffering. People have changed in their integrity. No handshakes anymore just two lawyers racking up the hourly tab putting a contract together the other one can't shred.

Not necessary for all this discourse. It's all in Manufacturing Consent by the great Chomsky with Herman I believe.

http://tinyurl.com/yhp3tvz If you want to buy it used and readable.

Jim's writing is great. It flows beautifully, it's emotive, precise, entertaining etc.

But I also wonder is Jim really as naiive as he seems?

He seems to work under the illusion that if only enough of the TPTB/elite read his blog/books and "got" peak oil, we'd all transition gracefully to some other "more sustainable" living arrangements.

Clearly TPTB have known about peak oil for a long, long time and have put in place a variety of measures - political, economic and security - to deal with the likely outcome. 911, Iraq, Afghanistan, H1N1, climate change bollox, subprime bubble, financial bailout etc are all off the same runsheet

Jeez - 6.5B people are not going to transition to become horse drawn, veggie growers without a massive shift in human consciousness and/or change in our basic DNA-based survival drives.

Anyway, this is all just the usual cycle of civilisations and species rising and falling. Life goes on.

Check out Ken Wilber from Integral Life at http://integrallife.com/node/1347

Still enjoy the writing but.

"Now would you please ban those who write in shorthand jibberish and make no sense whatsoever?"
--------------------------------------

I am inclined to go along with you on this - shorthand jibberish - although I don't favor banishment on beliefs. But the jibberish thing is hard to define. You've got someone like Asia who rarely writes complete sentences, may or may not use uppercase letters to begin sentences, etc. I don't know whether its laziness or simply a style but in any case its an affront to other readers.

But take SEB ... I'd like to meet the guy who can decipher what he's saying ... yet I think there's genious in it. Is he slipping in and out of schizo states or simply playing with our heads? I prefer to think of him as the James Joyce of chemistry, math and words.

Thanks for the support fefe.

These Amish duck eggs are wonderful. Try to find some. I am going to talk with a childless Amish woman who loves to garden about combing our talents in this direction. Always easier with two than one.

Besides the mayor cut down my entire garden June 2. His crony in the office was fired and he was asked to resign. I hope I had something to do with it.

I just want some more energy to file a civil suit against him. It will take a lot of time.

Qshtik said: "(Note to Asoka: please refrain from your usual negative comments on this subject.)"

OK, my usual refrain has cited specific examples. I will now cite the most common forms of defense contractor fraud (and the majority of them do these things; not just a few bad apples): cross charging, product substitution, improper cost allocation, failure to comply with contract specifications, and violations of the Truth-in-Negotiations Act ("TINA").

It is bad when weapons fail and our soldiers die because of contractor fraud.

When there is no fraud, and no weapon failure, then innocent civilians die in faraway lands.

Sucks either way in my opinion.

Is it possible that awareness of oil depletion as a real problem may be starting to slowly seep into the consciousness of the larger public, here and there? As a possible indicator, how about George Will's column in yesterday's Washington Post, entitled "Oil's Expanding Frontiers", in which he pooh-pooh's any possibility that there might be shortages in this century with talk of deepwater reserves, Canadian sands, etc, etc, and winding up with a dig against the environmentalists? It's the job of Tory pundits like Will to be good soldiers, and go wherever they're sent to stomp out any possible brushfires of skepticism regarding the Conservative version of reality. Is somebody at the Cato Institute smelling smoke? Can we soon expect nastier diatribes on the same theme from the guerilla fighters like Coulter, Limbaugh, & Co.? In a way, it might actually be a good thing. Anything which helps to bring this subject to the attention of the big public is probably a good thing. After all, in the long run (or even in the very short run, if JHK's prognostications turn out to be on target), time is NOT on the side of the pooh-poohers.

Well this is the theme of Arthur Miller's All My Sons only it had to do with War II. Seems an endless problem, eh?

Since you like to nitpick you spelled genius wrong.

yet I think there's genious

the stats for spelling are: people can spell about 95% of the words at their independent reading level. If Q dik can't spell genius then at what readability level is the word genius? I think 6-7-8th grade level as the upper limit. What does that say about Q dik's independent reading level?

Well probably nothing, but we could blog endlessly about this piece of trivia.

Your move Q dik.

How infantile is American society? Certainly no more infantile than Canadian society, what with all the breathless banter about Vancouver 2010, Rachel McAdam's latest love interest or the NHL's maneuvering to keep the Phoenix Coyotes in Arizona. Why bother talking about the economic downturn that's threatening to tear the nation apart as the resource-rich Western provinces assert their new-found dominance over the depressed Central and Eastern provinces. Who cares if all of our manufacturing capacity is being outsourced or Alberta's tar sands are an environmental time bomb. Doesn't Rachel look oh-so-cute in the arms of her latest celebrity suitor?

GI Joe said: "6.5B people are not going to transition to become horse drawn, veggie growers without a massive shift in human consciousness and/or change in our basic DNA-based survival drives."

The shift is going to be a massive population decline through starvation and disease. When you take out oil, the earth can support about 1 billion. What do you think will happen to the other 5.5 billion? Get ready for manual farm labor under a local feudal thug and his gang.

it just goes to show, not all bigots are illiterate yahoos. one was an articulate, well-read yahoo. They're the worst kind.

When the govt or the media speak of the death of X number of troops it is intended to make clear that they are speaking of military people, not civilians. To refer to the deaths of 4000+ "individuals" might make it seem the figure included civilians.

The term "troops" is in no way impersonal or pejorative. I have never heard of anyone in the military taking offence at being referred to as one of the "troops."

asoka said:

Why didn't people act this way last year, or the year before, since their credit cards were maxed out then, also.

Because this year, like no year in recent memory, credit card issuers are cutting credit lines rather than increasing them?

asoka said:

My point is that the American people are not as they are being portrayed in this week's post. They are not mindless, moronic, pleasure-seeking beings who are incapable of reacting rationally in an autonomous fashion to improve their economic situation.

Sorry, but yes, many of them are. Meet my sibling, as just one example:

Brother and his wife owned and operated two successful businesses and had a very good income (their words). Nevertheless, they lost their very modest home (this was no McMansion), then divorced, then purchased his-and-hers Harleys and a trailer to haul them in. Brother either can't or won't put a roof over his head (but he's got a cool bike;). So he, at age *52*(no that's not a typo), (and the Harley) now lives back at home with dear ol' Dad - just like when he was a child. Infantile? Damn right. And irresponsible and stupid and.....

There are more examples I know of personally and they're not hard to come by.

You must not be paying attention.

Mr. Kunstler is spot on.

I will miss SEB and Jaego. A lot. I'm not shocked to find some of you delighting in their banishment, and then brown nosing JHK for doing so. You know, there's a crazy street preacher in my downtown. He shouts "Jezebel" at all the women and warns of impending doom. Every now and then, he makes an astute observation. I think its a fair trade off.


Oak, did I miss something. If SEB was banned please point out the date and time of a Kunstler post declaring it.

"Your move Q dik."
--------------------

I typed the word correctly ... it was the friggin software that put that friggin "o" in there;-)

I feel the same.

Perhaps I am the fool and the dupe your (and Asoka's) comments imply ... and that my 26 years experience in these very areas of discussion vs your zero year's experience count for nothing.

In 26 years I saw two people hauled away; one was a director in procurement who had avoided the normal competitive process and engineered some purchases from a company owned by his son. If anything the people who discovered this fraud deserve your respect for having found it and stamped it out. Instead they earn your contempt for such a fraud ever existing in the first place.

The second was a subcontract administrator. The cops actually entered the building and took him away. We all wondered what "Charles" had done (he had a thing about not wanting to be called Chuck or Charlie) and shortly learned that it had to do with dealing drugs ... nothing to do with defrauding the govt. Even the drug charge didn't hold up and Charles was back with us in short order.

It is a shame you have so little appreciation for the lengths the govt goes to to insure ethical behavior. Those efforts are both extensive and effective and one of the reasons that defense procurement is so costly. The near fanatical obsession with "government compliance" is driven by persons such as you and Asoka who want to believe that anything related to the military is a gravy train and a fraud. This is part and parcel of your paranoia regarding all things related to govt or authority of any sort. I can only wonder what makes you this way. Was your father taken away by the cops and never returned?

"the great Chomsky"
----------------------

If you think Chomsky is great you'll absolutely adore Howard Zinn - most famous for his 1980 book A People's History of the United States. Surely you've read it. If not, I recommend it to you. It's right up your alley. You'll experience ecstacy and rapture. He'll be the preacher and you'll be the choir. You won't be able to put the book down. Zinn will leapfrog to the head of your favorite author list over all those other dudes you endlessly quote. David Foster Wallace won't stand a prayer. Even your panties will get damp (after all these years).

"combing our talents"
------------------------

Combing???????

I've heard of combing our hair but never combing our talents.

I guess even Ms Einstein makes typos.

in all this discussion its important to put a value on things. Yet we know perspective is influenced by an underlying value system. for instance you have jesus asking us 'what does it profit a wo/man if they gain the whole world but lose their soul? As I see it the sum of all I have is a big 0. It can all be gone to me in a heartbeat that fails to happen. If I had a billion dollars it would still be 0. Two billion? ok 00. What gives the 0 any value then? It's 1 in front of 0. As in 10 or 100 etc. Keeping The One in front of the 0's gives value to the 0's. The biggest problem with the US and other economies is that Christ is not honoured as He should be. Sure the US currency still reads 'In God We Trust' but for reasons of greed like the love of money we have sadly moved away from God. Like the bumper sticker that reads 'If God seems far away guess who moved?' we have bought into the lie that happiness comes from happenings. In other words if the circumstances are favourable I'm happy. We are so tied into the 0's and have forgotten The One that gives the 0's any value. The first Bible verse I ever memorized when stumbling out of the wild 60's in California on my way back home to Canada was Matthew 6:33. Google it and you'll understand that it's ok to enjoy the 0's if they come your way but don't forget The One in front of them. Peace...

in all this discussion its important to put a value on things. Yet we know perspective is influenced by an underlying value system. for instance you have jesus asking us 'what does it profit a wo/man if they gain the whole world but lose their soul? As I see it the sum of all I have is a big 0. It can all be gone to me in a heartbeat that fails to happen. If I had a billion dollars it would still be 0. Two billion? ok 00. What gives the 0 any value then? It's 1 in front of 0. As in 10 or 100 etc. Keeping The One in front of the 0's gives value to the 0's. The biggest problem with the US and other economies is that Christ is not honoured as He should be. Sure the US currency still reads 'In God We Trust' but for reasons of greed like the love of money we have sadly moved away from God. Like the bumper sticker that reads 'If God seems far away guess who moved?' we have bought into the lie that happiness comes from happenings. In other words if the circumstances are favourable I'm happy. We are so tied into the 0's and have forgotten The One that gives the 0's any value. The first Bible verse I ever memorized when stumbling out of the wild 60's in California on my way back home to Canada was Matthew 6:33. Google it and you'll understand that it's ok to enjoy the 0's if they come your way but don't forget The One in front of them. Peace...

10/9/09, FROM SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS:

“Virtually every major defense contractor in this country has been engaged in systemic, illegal, and fraudulent behavior, while receiving hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money.

We’re not talking here about the $53 million that ACORN received over 15 years. We’re in fact talking about defense contractors who have received many, many billions in defense contracts and year after year, time after time, violated the law, ripping off the taxpayers of this country big time,” Sanders said.

According to the nonpartisan Project on Government Oversight, the three largest government contractors – Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman – all have a history riddled with fraud and other illegal behavior.

Altogether, the three companies engaged in 109 instances of misconduct since 1995, and were fined $2.9 billion. How were they punished? In one year alone, the big-three pocketed $77 billion in government contracts in 2007.

With a $12 trillion national debt and the biggest budget deficit in history, Sanders said, “Taxpayers want to know that the money we spend – whether it is for defense, housing, education, or any other purpose – is spent as wisely and as cost-effectively as possible. They also want to know that the corporations and institutions and individuals who receive this funding are honest and trustworthy.”

Qshtik, most defense contractor fraud is not punished. DoD does not have sufficient staff. Most of the time those committing fraud do not go to jail. Case in point: in 26 years you saw very few being taken away. Mostly they get a slap on the wrist, pay a fine, and continue their theft of taxpayer funds.

One particularly troubling element of this gradual trainwreck -- which we can all see coming but our leaders refuse to acknowledge -- which will lead to austerity and a scaling back of dreams, is how current disenfranchised groups are going to be affected.

Many minority group members may likely feel that the rug is being pulled out from under them just as they were set to rise to equal footing now that outmoded largely racist ideologies have gone by the wayside.

I was listening to a radio program the other day in which a speaker was talking about how college degrees are becoming inflated and how it's probably not necessary for everybody to go to college (especially those who demonstrated few academic talents in high school); the speaker also went into how a job isn't guaranteed even for those who do get college degrees.

Anyway, a black female professor (or academic of some kind), who was a follow-up guest, blasted the speaker (a white guy) for being an elitist and not considering the past and current trials of minorities, who haven't had the same opportunities.

So, her reaction got me thinking: Will a downscaled, more environmentally friendly future be greeted with open arms by the disenfranchised if they have to give up their dreams of having what privelaged white people have had for so long?

And if not, how will they be affected? What will that do to their psyche?

I'm not saying minorities are going to go out and do all kinds of horrible things or anything like that. But it's just something to think about. The coming age of austerity, as JHK puts it, will surely have an aura of unfairness.

It seems with Obama in office, many dream of a more equal society. I think that will be the case, but it won't be because all groups are suddenly on equal economic footing with the upper middle class. It will be because the middle class goes away.

As JHK points out repeatedly, the populace seems unwilling to face the second reality. And the reaction could be fierce.

FYI - Listen to Dave Matthews, people.

To Asoka: The defense contractor fraud is indeed disgusting. It's what Eisenhower warned about. Even Lincoln saw the war profiteers coming and warned about them.

But as bad as defense contract fraud is, the big problem, of course, is big bank fraud.

The people getting the big bonuses right now are the biggest fraudsters around. They sold products they knew were bogus. The proof: the credit default swap (a Wall St. insurance policy). All of 'em had them on the books. They created the wealth out of thin air, and they knew the government would have to pay up.

Thousands should be in prisonn right now.

To Cowswithguns: The bank fraud is bad, but not as bad as defense contractor fraud.

With bank fraud you get people losing value in their 401K's and people's losing value in their houses and people losing their houses. In all cases people do not lose their lives.

With defense contractor fraud you get people losing their lives, you get human trafficking, you get brutal rapes, you get soldiers being electrocuted. Let's take the example of just one contractor's actions in one year, 2008:

January 2008
01/02/2008 – SSG Ryan Maseth is electrocuted in his shower and dies at Radwaniyah Palace Complex in Baghdad, Iraq due to shoddy electrical work. Army Criminal Investigations Command (CID) opens investigation into manner of death.

01/??/2008 – KBR employee, Dawn Leamon was drugged and brutally raped in her room at Camp Harper in Southern Iraq.

February 2008
02/27/2008 -KBR employee Tracy K Barker was raped in Basra, Iraq. – Another of KBR’s rape victims to come forward

March 2008
03/09/2008 – AP Exclusive – US troops may have become sick in Iraq from contaminated water supplied by KBR

03/12/2008 – Pentagon Dismisses KBR Contaminated Water: Troops Should ‘Just Drink Bottled Water’

03/19/08 – Cheryl Harris, SSG Ryan Maseth’s mother files “Wrongful Death” lawsuit against KBR in Pennsylvania.

April 2008
04/09/2008 – Former KBR employees Dawn Leamon and Mary Beth Kineston testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about their rapes in Iraq – Closing Legal Loopholes:Prosecuting Sexual Assaults And Other Violent Crimes Committed Overseas By American Civilians In A Combat Environment

04/28/2008 – Senate DPC Hearing – Contracting Abuses in Iraq:Is the Bush Administration Safeguarding American Taxpayer Dollars? – KBR employees working in Iraq stole weapons, artwork and even gold to make spurs for cowboy boots, two former company workers told Senate Democrats.

May 2008
05/09/2008 – Former KBR employee and Jamie Leigh Jones gang rape case goes to trial instead of arbitration!

05/25/2008 – 9 former KBR employees file suit for sodium dichromate exposure.

June 2008
06/02/2008 – My first blog post about KBR and the soldier electrocutions. (It’s important to me!)

06/11/2008 – The Army Criminal Investigations Command (CID) finds SSG Ryan Maseth’s death was an “accident”. (CID reopens investigation 08/29/2008)

06/20/2008 – Senate DPC Hearing – The Exposure at Qarmat Ali: Contractor Misconduct and the Safety of U.S. Troops in Iraq Former KBR employees testify about how KBR knowingly exposed US Troops and their own employees to Hexavalent Chromium (Chrom-6).

06/20/2008 – Group demands that California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CALPERS) dump KBR Inc stocks. What a great idea!!!

July 2008
07/01/2008 – Senator Casey expresses concerns about KBR performing own electrical inspections.

07/09/2008 – Senate DPC Hearing – Safeguarding Taxpayer Dollars in Iraq: An Insider’s View of Questionable Contracting Practices by KBR and the Pentagon Former Chief of the Field Support Command Division testifies to personally witnessing KBR submitting over $1 billion in unsupported charges.

07/11/2008 – Senate DPC Hearing – Contractor Misconduct and the Electrocution Deaths of American Soldiers in Iraq Mothers Cheryl Harris, Larraine McGee, Soldier Rachel McNeil and Electricians Debbie Crawford and Jeff Bliss testify to shoddy electrical work done by KBR. More videos and media coverage.

07/17/2008 – The H.R. HEART Act of 2008 goes into affect. KBR can no longer avoid paying millions in Social Security and Medicare taxes. To bad it’s not retroactive.

07/17/2008 – Fisher v. Halliburton – KBR Lawsuit Revived – The “Good Friday Massacre.” Friday, April 9, 2004. KBR truck drivers were sent out on convoy when KBR was told they would be attacked.

07/18/2008 – Electrical Risks at Bases in Iraq Worse Than Previously Said

07/18/2008 – Senators Want Independent Safety Review of KBR’s Electrical Work in Iraq

07/21/2008 – Larraine McGee, mother of SSG Christopher Everett file suit against KBR for his electrocution death at Camp Taqqadum.

07/30/2008 – Committee on Oversight and Government Reform hold hearings on Deficient Electrical Systems at U.S. Facilities in Iraq KBR’s Tom Bruni, the DoD and DCMA are totally humiliated by the Committee for their shoddy work and lack of oversight.

August 2008
08/??/2008 – KBR changes it’s qualification requirements for it’s electricians requiring them to be licensed. It also increases journeyman wages to $3750 base and masters to $5000 base. Finally!!!

08/12/2008 – Curtis Coffey files suit. Iraq Injury Spurs Class Action Against KBR

08/27/2008 -KBR, Partner in Iraq Contract Sued in Human Trafficking Case – Suit Alleges Slavery

08/29/2008 – The Army Criminal Investigations Command (CID) re-opens the investigation into the cause of SSG Ryan Maseth’s death.

September 2008
09/??/2008 – Task Force Safe is implemented to inspect the electrical wiring at 90,000 DoD facilities including those maintained by KBR.

09/03/2008 – Former KBR Exec pleads guilty to bribery and is sentenced to seven years.

09/11/2008 – KBR issued Level III Corrective Action Request (CAR) by the DCMA in Iraq.

09/27/2008 – Electrical Review Turns Up 3700 fires Not The 483 Reported!

09/29/2008 – IBEW Urges Electrical Safety In Iraq

October 2008
10/??/2008 – KBR claims all electrical work in Iraq was done to British Standards

10/10/2008 – Former KBR employee gets 3 years for child porn in Iraq

10/24/2008 – Pentagon Finds Company Violated Its Contract on Electrical Work in Iraq – NY Times

November 2008
11/24/2008 – Contractor (KBR) for military committed serious violations-CNN

11/26/2008 – Suit claims Halliburton, KBR sickened base – Ice tainted with body fluids, rotten food and contaminated water.

December 2008
12/03/2008 – KBR involved in Human Trafficking … again.

12/08/2008 – Indiana National Guard file suit against KBR for chemical exposure at Qarmat Ali water plant.

12/29/2008 – New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr., on behalf of the New York City Pension Funds demands answers. I hope more Pension Funds SELL their KBR and HALLIBURTON shares because of the Waste, Fraud & Abuse in Iraq!!!

really enjoyed the last two posts. Have been reading the blog the last three years, and you inspired me to write a song that touched on peak oil, called 'Chinatown'. If you wish to check it out, go to my 'myspace' page:

http://www.myspace.com/thepetrocksband

thank you for the fearless, dark and funny commentary, James.

OAKLEY WROTE

"...brown nosing Mr.Kunstler"

Rubbish, I read this blog because I like his writing, (why else would one)?

I certainly don't read it to see the same hateful, racist bile repeated over and over again.

OAKLEY WROTE

"...brown nosing Mr.Kunstler"

Rubbish, I read this blog because I like his writing, (why else would one)?

I certainly don't read it to see the same hateful, racist bile repeated over and over again.

abbeybooks,
You should stick to dropping names of obscure philosophers and trying to convice everyone here you are some sort of intellectual. When it comes to history, and Pearl Harbor in particular, you are practically illiterate.

The only thing "dangerous" about Dear Abbey is her tendency to lull everyone to sleep with her turgid antiquarian literary references.

Asoka: Good point and good examples regarding contractor fraud. Indeed nothing matches war for dealing out pain and misery. I guess what I was trying to say is in terms of scale, banking fraud trumps the contractor (war profiteer) fraud. The numbers are staggering. A worldwide derivatives market of something like $700 trillion.

By the way, Blackwater (now Xe, pronounced Z) is the scariest company around. It brings to mind the corporate powers in the movie Aliens. After their job overseas in complete they could be a private military force for corporations. Wow...

I HOPE we emerge as a completely different economy. This one is mired in bullshit. I'm no longer dreading this, but starting to look forward to it. This is no longer worth saving, and we deserve the consequences of our stupid decisions.

http://freedomguerrilla.com/

Cowswithguns: I agree with you. In terms of sheer numbers, the magnitude of bank fraud cannot be matched. It is a worldwide phenomena.

You are right about Xe/Blackwater. These guys are operating in secret, without public oversight, planning drone strikes and black ops (to be carried out by Special Forces) in places like Karachi and Uzbekistan (against the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan).

I guess I missed when Congress had declared war on Pakistan and Uzbekistan.

Xe/Blackwater plan the drone strikes on houses full of people. If a "suspected" Taliban is targeted in a house with 34 other people.... well, 35 people will die that day... and Bin Laden gets more support to recruit terrorists looking for payback. Xe/Blackwater sponsors convulsion that contributes to the greater clusterfuck.

Why “Montana Joe” - I’m shocked!
Posting on the INTERNET!
Why on the bolg-site of a one-book-wonder?
The Long Emergency?
Fits… I guess.
And you’re already banned; that was fast.

I’ll go out on a limb, to show you I do care.
Do the regulars on this blog see how quickly I work?
Comes out of the woodwork every few months…
Came out quick for you though!
What language they use, so unlike you.
The Wonder.
No one cares Joseph.
Stop trying and remember your deal! It’s too late anyway and you know it.
How’s Rachel?
Oh yeah, I used your computer, hope you don’t mind. And, I had that last jot of Chivas, sorry – thanks.

To the rest of you paragons of intellect:
First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out, for I was not a communist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out, for I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out, for I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me…
Abbey is not even close to being as dangerous as Montana Joe.
(you see I do care!)
There is no such thing as “govt. conspriacy,” but there are conspiricies among men.
Everything we do, we inform you of first; and everyhing we do, we do in plain sight.

Light-sweet crude peaked July 23, 2006.

Heu interj casus litterarius uester fabella peroptato acclaro losephus!

Great post! Thanks.

Gail

Great post! Thanks!

-Gail

10 'earth friendly' bags and an SUV!

well

heres an email i got from a lawyer in the UK:

The situation is pretty bad here. Like the US there was a huge property bubble fuelled
by cheap credit and irresponsible lending. Lots of people started buying properties as
investments in order to rent them out. Now there's a glut of properties and lots of landlords have gone bankrupt. Basically, anything to do with property is doing very badly. The kind of clients I worked for were mainly housebuilders, so that's why my job disappeared - they just stopped building anything.

What I'm hoping to do is get a temp job for about 12 months. In September next year I then plan on going back to university in order to re-train.

I've registered with a few agencies and am trying to get a temp job with a government agency or city government. The public sector is having to make cuts too, but not as bad. Plus they always have loads of people going off sick for months at a time.

'And why on earth should commercial media be excoriated for doing what they do best?'

Because Jimmy doesnt like it
It was on a business show! not MTV!

If you read his book you know the comment.........the village prospered by taking in each others hogwash!

James isn't a one hit wonder. He has written 4 books that I know of.

1) Geography of Nowhere 1993
2) Home from Nowhere 1996
3) The City In Mind 2002

And The Long Emergency being the most current.
All of his writings and books are full of correct observations and his take on "Our Culture" is same as mine, I however, as we all know, do not have away with words, or sentences, but I try.

All of his books are relevant today. He was/is ahead of the times in thinking. (not ahead of me tho!)ha.

I think G of Nowhere (MY FAVE) may have been written before 93, anyway I discovered him than, and glad he kept writing, and continues to do so.

I am laying low for the Holidaze, NOT driving, going to cook a chicken and some veggies, for a few friends, and go swimming, take a walk.

over and out for now.

I know a woman who I consider to be very smart and one of the few I know that trekked all the way to west tibet to go to Mt kailash...shes deep into Tibetan budddism..i told her the oils running out so its like
' we ll have electric cars and organic food...michelles got a garden at the white house and gardenings way up in the usa'!!!

consumer?
troops?

also abb..what are the best websites for beginning gardeners

as far as yr history of WW2...did the govt seal the borders during ww1 and WW2?

we are in a 9/ year war....and allowing 70m a year to visit
including from afghanistan!

was that the point of the club of rome?
are you familiar with catherine austin fitts site and her opinion on where the usa is and why?

also ...with regards to yr comment to dee..its 'your are'
or 'you're'..ok toots?

It seems you have nothing but contempt for my lifetime educational experience, my teaching experience, my experience as a therapist, my real estate development, my performance artist status world wide, my financial expertise (studied with Greenspan) my experience in art (studied with Leo Steinberg, et al) and owned my own gallery, reading clinic research, perception research, and .....I guess I shall stop there but there is more.

and no government employees were never people I looked up to, just people I had to deal with and often pay off.

Jim's writing is mediocre. He complains about racism and offers vile classism. I suffer from it myself except I deplore the uneducated. By this I don't mean the really good mechanic, nor the really good and impassioned organic farmer, nor the artist or crafts person, nor anyone of excellence. But I think that's what JHK is really talking about when he writes on the yeast people who are about to blow up. I find government retirees most often among the ill educated and ignorant. They think they know things because they have been in a position to call decisions, little puny ones I might add, but none the less enough to puff up their egos.

The great Foucault would disagree with you. Calling them troops instead of people allows us and them to think of themselves as objects. It is the way of The Official Discourse which both sides buy into it. Orwell names it too.

But I see you have bought the Company Language and are also defending it.

Hooray for you you little round peg in a round hole.

SEB is really a poet who doesn't know he is.

Yes I have read Zinn and unlike your children have not outgrown him. But then kids revert back to their identification with their parents as they arrive at young adulthood. See Altemyer's The Authoritarians for this insight.

I'm not the one who nitpiks typos and spelling. You are so I retaliated in kind.

I make typos all the time but I don't criticize others for doing so either.

Except you who uses it as a chance to jump on someone and not just me when you can't find a real intellectual argument in your rusty arsenal in there.

I was listening to a radio program the other day in which a speaker was talking about how college degrees are becoming inflated and how it's probably not necessary for everybody to go to college (especially those who demonstrated few academic talents in high school);

College and University degrees have been inflated for 3 yes three decades at least. Toynbee was the last generation that received a classical education in the UK. Latin, Greek, Arabic, French, Italian, etc and history up to the present time. We are fortunate he preserved it for us.

The present degrees are just an extension of high school. Because now the work force demands it-as they can- because there are so many of them.

Nobody knows anything anymore.

Asoka, stop trying to convince someone who is arguing in bad faith. Facts will not penetrate.

I agree with you about the banksters but there is much underlying the cause of their unpunished fraud.

They are taking the path of the tyrant, the despot, who makes and breaks laws as she/he see fit. I am reading Foucault's Abnormal Lectures from 74-75 at the College de France, a most unusual institution of higher learning. No formal students, no exams, just chaired professors who lecture on their past year's research. They are totally free. People all over the world come to hear lectures there. Now that is REAL education.

In Abnormal he uses his method of genealogy to untangle this standardization of normality rooted in Discipline and Punish a book he was working on at the time. Classical punishment was the revenge of the sovereign. It was in excess of the offense as it was meant to deter and horrify (done publicly) the people. With the next step which we are in, the abnormal entered the game, incarceration and rehabilitation or permanent imprisonment and secret punishment became institutionalized (the important word in Foucault).

As I see it without any deep thinking, the bankers are being treated as ruling despots of classical times because they don't know what else to do with them. They know they will not hesitate to demolish all the blocks in the facade they have built up. You don't want to let me play my game, ok no game! Bam!

Really this is a new moment in crime and punishment. There is no precedent. Obama is the type of guy who needs precedents. (OK SEB precedents and presidents sound the same, but no pun intended.)

Yes Dale I expect comments like this from someone with an inflated degree.

Our stupid decisions? This has been coming on for over 2 centuries. It is faceless. Institutionalized. And until we change the way we think and speak about it we will gt more of the same.

Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance is a good place to start.

The interesting thing about the name Xe, is the contempt the company shows for the American people through its use; it also reveals just how shady its dealings are.

The disassociation between the spelling and the pronunciation of the name (sounds like Z) shows how duplicitous the company's owners are. Changing the name from Blackwater wasn't enough -- they wanted to do all they could to make sure the typical American can't connect the dots.

Here's a conversation I can imagine:

"I heard on the radio the other day that a mercenary contracting company called Z killed a bunch of civilians. How horrible. Oh, by the way, I read in the paper that this company called Xe is pulling in huge profits. I really should invest in it."

I haven't read any of his books except for a few sentences. He can't write a good sentence. He needs to read much much more and become literate for my taste. But he is not writing for an audience like me. He is writing for the masses. And the masses need to read and take in what he says. Important.

Margaret Atwood said it much better decades ago inThe Handmaid's Tale which someone above mentioned and reminded me of. It is beautifully written and ultimately frightening and inspires horror. Because you know it is going to come true.

'And why on earth should commercial media be excoriated for doing what they do best?'

Because they are using public airwaves that belong to all of us.

Abbey said: "Calling them troops instead of people allows us and them to think of themselves as objects"

They're called troops because that's their job. Much like we call some people plumbers because that's what they are. Do plumbers think of themselves as objects because they are called plumbers? No, that sort of mental masterbation is the occupation of academics, of which tribe you suppose yourself to be a member.

When one looks at the tapestry of history, it is easy enough to find multiple instances of events that were predictable. Much of what JHK writes about was obvious, even to me, back in the sixties. What is more important is that our society has had a prediliction for favoring conceptualizations that were mathematically tractable. What this has led to, for example in economics, theories, that in order to be accepted, had to formulated in linear or even simple polynomial perspectives. This coupled with almost a religious belief in gaussian (bell-curve) statistics, has led to predictions often ok, but never fully correct. Chaos theory (non-linear dynamics) and the work of Taleb , i.e. "Black Swan" has resulted in
the understanding that major events often move in a quantum (step-like) at unpredictable times. Significant substantiation of this kind of fractal behavior was in fact observed by Prechter with his elucidation of Elliott Waves. I still believe that there are some of us who can read the social/psychic winds and act accordingly. Others tend to get trampled by mass hysteria.

Consequently, it seems pretty clear that some form of social debacle is coming, but that some of us will continue to go to film school, plant inner city gardens, or hole up in a suburban fortress with sufficient ammo to get themselves killed. What will be really necessary is to understand the specifics of how the context is changing and be nimble or lucky enough to guess right.

Cowswithguns said: "The disassociation between the spelling(Xe) and the pronunciation of the name (sounds like Z) shows how duplicitous the company's owners are."

Yes, like Xerox was "duplicitous" with its name.

If pronunciation of words in the English language are too difficult for you stick to Esperanto.

English has many strange pronunciations, but that's hardly proof of a conspiracy to fool people.

Michelle's garden at the WH is a laugh. all of the serious gardeners around here snicker. But it isa symbol of what all of us should be doing so good on her.

Either start studying old OG and ME so you will know what to do or start a garden so you can make your mistakes now.

Your first year with butternut and acorn squash will be a truckload of them. You will think you are a genius. The next year the bugs will devour every last one of them. Nada. The first year allows the predators to find them and spawn. The secret is to find out the predator of the predators. I haven't so will someone please tell me. I look under every fuggin leaf to find the little black eggs. But I can do that as I don't weed, water, or do anything but talk to the plants and love them in a responsible way. They know when they are being admired every day.

Oh and check the cornears every morning. as soon as you see a worm, pick that ear as it will be perfect. Feed the wormto your chickens. They will kill you for those worms. I never heard chickens scream like that before.

Apparently you have quite a resume but I have no way of knowing how effective you were in your areas of expertise. I do know this ... a month ago you were complaining bitterly about being deceived by Alan Greenspan into foregoing grant money ... now you are bragging that you studied "with" him.

I also know that when you described your teaching of Standard American English to black students I was appalled at your advice to them to retain their black vernacular as a second language. Since clashing with you on that subject I have read David Foster Wallace's essay titled "Authority and American Usage" (one of ten brilliant essays in his book titled "Consider the Lobster") in which he describes his own attempts to convey SWE - Standard Written English (which he then confesses might just as well have been titled Standard "White" English), to black college students. Without attempting to paraphrase Wallace (an impossibility for just about anyone) let me just say, I came away feeling that his views about the advisability of abandoning black vernacular matched mine.

As to all the rest: therapist, real estate development, performance artist, financial expertise, experience in art, etc ... by what criteria should I judge your effectiveness? (the LENGTH of the resume is irrelevant) Did you make a lot of money? Did you produce jaw-dropping art? (Is your art as good as Kunstler's?) Did your therapy lead to cures of mental disorders in your patients/clients? Could SEB benefit from your therapy?

You tell ME and I'll take you at your word.

My gardening comment is being inspected. I was a child during War II but I bet it wasn't easy to get in and out. I know the Japanese were put in "camps" here, their homes and farms confiscated. Little dachshunds were tortured and killed. German Shepherds were mistreated. Posters on walls with Uncle Sam holding a finger to his lips saying the Fifth Column was listening. Whatever the Fifth Column was.

I am not arguing this. If you are really interested in why plumbers are also objects as are teachers, etc then go study Foucault for yourself.

He is dense but not difficult to understand. He really wants to communicate.

I took a straw bale workshop at Dancing Rabbit an eco intentional community north of Columbia MO. the leader of it was from Sedona. She said every week she walked into the desert for 24 hours with nothing. She said, I can survive almost anywhere now. She also said she was doing no more straw bale building workshops but was concentrating on cobb buildings. Her slide show of the cobb buildings was incredible. She did workshops with old ladies like me who dug the foundations and built their own homes (beautiful) out of mud, straw and sand. She liked them because they were biodegradable even though they lasted for more than 100 years. She said cement is forever.

And the art of Andrew Goldsworthy is on DVD. All eco and beautiful.

Naming, logos, and the visual image of a corporation is of the highest importance. They bring in special design people to do that for them. And they take into consideration many things.

so puzzler you are again showing your ignorance.

Or are you trolling?

Honey I have no intention of defending myself against you. It would take days to document all this.

You can start with a search of Tripoli Gallery in Philly. The emerging artists I gave shows to that have web pages will come up. You might try Bricolage Theatre or Performance Art Group for that part of my life. I have already given you some students web pages. Go back and check.

However if you want to pay me $100 an hour I will be glad to oblige you.

I coould give you addresses of property I owned and you could research the title transfers in the archives. That would be easy as they are mostly in Philly. You could start with the Banca d'Italia, the first Italian bank in the US. When the banks failed in 29 the mafia got in line and put money in as the savers were taking money out and stopped the run on the bank.It's a beautiful building.

I just checked google street view and it seems they have changed the format so I can't give you a link to the pic. Maybe I did something wrong. The tree I planted at the corner is still there.